230 Afghan Migrant Families

Around 28 MN Afghans Will Need Humanitarian Aid In 2023: UN

The UN agency for the coordination of humanitarian affairs stated that Afghanistan continues to face one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, with 28.3 million people expected to require aid in the upcoming year, TOLOnews reported.

“Afghanistan faces its third consecutive year of drought-like conditions and the second year of debilitating economic collapse,” TOLOnews reported citing the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
“It is estimated that a record 28.3 million people will need humanitarian and protection assistance in 2023, up from 24.4 million in 2022,” the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs added.

In the meantime, the UN requested USD 51 billion on Thursday for those in need in 70 different nations in 2023.

According to UN emergency assistance coordinator Martin Griffiths, the humanitarian needs of some countries are ‘alarmingly great’.

“Five countries are experiencing what we call a famine condition and we can confidently and unhappily say that people are dying,” Griffiths added.

Meanwhile, UNICEF said that the lives of over 8,000 children in Afghanistan are at risk due to food insecurity.

Children in Afghanistan require more humanitarian aid than in the past and hangers are a daily occurrence, TOLOnews reported citing Ezatullah Akbari, head of Human Rights Watch’s media department.

Afghanistan is currently grappling with a serious humanitarian crisis as according to international assessments, the country now has the highest number of people in emergency food insecurity in the world, with more than 23 million in need of assistance and approximately, 95 per cent of the population having insufficient food consumption.

Moreover, the situation of human rights in Afghanistan has worsened since the collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power in August last year.

The Ukraine crisis has also had a significant impact on the rise in food prices, making it unaffordable for many Afghans.

Even as the war has ended in the nation, grave human rights violations–particularly against women and minorities–remain unabated. The fundamental rights to non-discrimination, education, employment, public engagement, and health are being denied to women and girls in Afghanistan, reported Khaama Press. (ANI)

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Water Cuts Hit Kyiv

Million Homes In Kyiv Without Electricity Due To Russian Attacks

Following massive Russian strikes on Ukraine as the tension between the two countries continues to escalate, almost half a million homes in Kyiv were without electricity on Friday, Al Jazeera reported citing Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko.

“4,50,000 consumers, that is households in Kyiv, are out of power this morning. It is one and a half times more than the recent days,” Klitschko said on Telegram, as he condemned the Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and civilians.
Moreover, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also attacks infrastructure in the regions of Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia leaving numerous locals without electricity with about 4.5 million Ukrainian consumers dealing with massive power outages as of Thursday evening, Al Jazeera reported.

“The fact that Russia has resorted to terror against the energy sector indicates the enemy’s weakness. They cannot defeat Ukraine on the battlefield and therefore they are trying to break our people in this way,” Zelensky said.

Ukraine is under massive blackouts and the residents are under severe water shortages as one of the strikes hit an energy facility that powered 350,000 apartments in the capital, CNN reported citing Klitschko who further added that emergency services are making every effort to stabilize the situation.

Moreover, strikes were also reported in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia as well. Power outages caused by Russian attacks continued in Kyiv over the weekend. Klitschko said earlier it will take weeks to repair electrical systems.

Ukrainian officials believe Russia’s countrywide drone and cruise missile attacks are being carefully orchestrated to target important infrastructure as Ukraine heads into winter, reported CNN. By hitting thermal power stations, electricity substations, transformers, and pipelines, Russian forces have been directly impacting Ukrainians’ ability to access power, water, and the internet.

Russia suspended its participation in an UN-brokered grain deal viewed as key to addressing the global food shortage, according to the country’s defence ministry.

Moscow announced it was leaving the deal after blaming Ukraine for a drone attack on Crimea Saturday. Kyiv accused Russia of inventing “fictitious terrorist attacks” and using the deal as “blackmail.”

By Sunday, more than 200 vessels had been blocked from making shipments, Ukraine said. A growing number of Kyiv’s allies condemned Moscow’s move. (ANI)

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Where is Ukraine Going?

It is not clear what the President of Ukraine expects the end of the war will look like. It is obvious what India’s options are. It is uncertain whether the West has clearly thought out the consequences of its involvement. However, what is clear is that the Ukraine war has started rearranging the order of power in the world, spelling a possible end to a globalised economy and testing world’s leading institutions. If 9/11 precipitated the age of the neurotic State fearful of its own citizens, the Ukraine war is starting the reshuffling of world order and possibly paving the way to reconfigurations of States in future. In this series, I explore each of this in turn.

That Russia is a very powerful country with some successful military campaigns behind it in recent decade cannot be disputed. That Ukraine is relatively a small power with a much smaller army and arsenal compared to Russia is also not contestable.

When Russia surrounded Ukraine in the East and North East, the general view was that if provoked, it would crush Ukraine in a short time. The United States war in Afghanistan lasted nearly 20 years while in Iraq it was about 15 years. The Syrian war is still going on after ten years. Comparatively, the Ukraine war is expected to last much shorter period, perhaps a year.

Ukraine’s choice was between compromising some of its sovereignty or risk war. It bravely chose to take on Russia. The odds are heavy when one compares the military strengths of the two.

With an army of around a million and reserves of around 2 million, Russia also has a phenomenal arsenal. It has 6,255 nuclear warheads, the largest in the world. Some of its hypersonic missile technology surpasses any in the West. It has so far only deployed about 10-15% of its fighting capabilities in Ukraine.

Ukraine is a smaller country with an army of some 200,000 and paramilitary forces consisting of National Guard and Border Guard etc of 60,000. Comparatively it has far fewer weapons, aircraft and missiles and most of them are from the Soviet era, although it has an arms manufacturing industry as well. But training its army, helping with strategy are officers from several western NATO countries, particularly United States and United Kingdom, although both deny any active participation in Ukraine itself having shifted training centres into Germany since February 2022.

ALSO READ: Theatre of Horror In Ukraine

It appears that Russia first surrounded Kyiv from two sides to intimidate Ukraine to give it an opportunity to accept its terms to avoid war. The Russian terms were: Ukraine declare neutrality and pass in law that it would not join NATO. Russia required it to decentralise and give autonomy to Donbas regions, second language status to Russian language and what it calls ‘denazification’ of Ukraine military. Russia considers the Azov forces to be Nazi like outfits. That Azov outfits were hard core right wing with Nazi regalia was also widely reported in most western media until the war started.

Kyiv refused Russian terms. Russia invaded. Having seen that Ukrainian army was intent to fight back ferociously, Russia withdrew and readjusted its tactics to ones it employed in Syria. Concentrating on Donbas as well as South of Ukraine, its approach is merciless destruction and onslaught of key strategic areas using a combination of ground troops and air borne fire. This is producing it results.

There is also suggestions that Russian intelligence about lack of Ukraine resistance was wrong. It is possible that some western agencies may have identified pro-Russian agents and spoon fed them disinformation through Ukrainian officials.

Since the attack, the Ukraine President and other politicians have appealed passionately for the west to get involved directly, either by imposing no fly zones or boots on the ground. However even before the war, USA, UK and European powers had indicated that they would not physically come to Ukraine’s aid. Everyone fears a nuclear war. No one is keen to destroy the whole world yet. The west has nevertheless resorted to sanctions, supply of weapons and training of Ukrainian army. Characteristically Britain has been the most gung-ho, still attempting to play big. Moreover as admitted by US media, the United States has been engaged throughout the campaign in providing intelligence, guiding strategy and targets. Russian media insists that US personnel are on the ground advising tactics, manning equipment etc and some have been captured.

The west seems keen for this war to prolong. It hopes this weakens Russian capability through loss of personnel and armour. It also gives NATO enough intelligence to understand Russian tactics, strategies and the lethal effectiveness or functionalities of its armour. It helps NATO forces to prepare for a real confrontation with Russia.

The West is now suppling some advanced weapons. When used it will be an exhibition of their effectiveness. This increases sales as it already has. US arms producers are expected to gain $17 Billion from supply of these weapons and more in future world orders. Some of its decision makers will gain profits from the new package announced for Ukraine. Türkey has already seen manyfold increase in orders for its Bayraktar drones that have gained legendary status against Russian Tanks. Ukraine has been a proxy fighter for NATO, particularly USA and being used as an arms fair to show piece weapons.

For Russia too, the war is an opportunity to learn. It has been engaged in wars in developing countries and against non-State actors such as Syrian rebels. Ukraine is the first real European fighting machine that it is encountering. Armies can do all the simulation exercises in training, but they harden and mature in real battles. Russian arms saw a five-fold increase in sale after Syria. Although components are becoming difficult due to sanctions, Russia is testing some of its latest lethal weapons from time to time in Ukraine. Their sales will grow after the war.

War is an ugly affair and brings out the worst in humanity despite all the human rights treaties and conventions. It’s a merciless killing ground. Once it starts, few if any morals survive in war.

With all the odds stacked against it, realising that no western armies are flying in to help and possibly conscious that they are now fighting a proxy war at great expense to themselves, it is still not clear what the Ukrainian leadership is realistically hoping to achieve at the end. About a quarter of its population is now displaced and many have fled the country. Its cities have been devastated. It has lost territory.

Whether Russia is right or wrong to have gone into Ukraine is immaterial now. Despite the drama of war crimes courts, Putin isn’t going to face any trial any more than Bush or Blair will face trials for Iraq, unless there is capitulation by Russia and a coup hands him over.  Fortunes of wars are not decided by morality, laws or international conventions but by might. Currently, it does not look good for Ukraine. 

It is all very well to say, Ukrainians have a right to defend themselves. But the western world is indulging its own morals and strategic policies to weaken Russia at the expense of Ukrainian families, children and elderly people, even when the situation looks hopeless.

Russia isn’t going anywhere and Donbas is lost. Russia’s army is still intact. It is weathering the sanctions and seems to have factored in the losses in men and arms. Putin’s ratings are higher domestically. Ukraine’s army has lost about 25% of its personnel. Its weapons are depleting. In some wars, the attacked victim has no choice but to fight or die. Ukraine had choices and still has some. Its choices are now limited as the veteran strategist Henry Kissinger has stated.  Is it time to accept the inevitable and avoid further bloodshed.

(This is the first part of a series on Russia-Ukraine war to appear in these columns)

Ukraine Crisis: A Diplomatic Opportunity for India

India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, has had to deal with a very difficult foreign policy challenge for India that arose from the Russian invasion into Ukraine. However, his deft handling of the situation has proved his mettle. The diplomatic challenge needed juggling several interests and conflicts at the same time. So far, Indian Foreign Ministry has handled the issue with skill without coming under any pressure from the parties pulling in different directions, including USA, Russia and China as well as other smaller groups.

The 2+2 dialogue between India and the United States of America combined with the video call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden is significant for various reasons. It provided an opportunity for India and the US to better locate concerns of the other party vis-à-vis the Russian invasion.

For India it is important to pacify the world community about its reluctance to vote on numerous occasions on the Russian aggression, at the United Nations. Though India professes a neutral stand, it is part of a group with North Korea, Iran and China. This causes apprehensions among the US and its NATO allies as India has acquired respectability and status due to its economic strength and recently due to its efforts to mitigate the effects of COVID 19 pandemic. However, during the current situation, India has also maintained that any form of armed aggression upon another sovereign nation is unacceptable.

The 2+2 dialogue may have been an apt platform to clarify to the US, the reasons behind India’s neutral stand on Russia’s aggression. On the other hand, it is common knowledge that India’s defence sector and its numerous weapons systems are structurally dependent upon Russia’s arms and weapons industry. It is estimated that Russian arms equipment and weapons systems account for close to 70% of India’s defence supplies.

Against this background, it is perhaps easy to comprehend India’s neutrality and its absenteeism on crucial votes against Russia in the UN, which has wrongly been perceived as pro-Russia. The pressure, nevertheless, on India from the US and in general the West, has been unrelenting since the invasion began. India, though, has stuck to its position, bearing in mind the consequences thereof and the options it may possess. During this difficult period, however, the Indian establishment’s deft diplomacy and strategic autonomy has prominently been on display.

At the centre of this tumultuous and testing period for Indian diplomatic establishment, Dr Jaishankar has shown exemplary geopolitical acumen. Under his leadership the MEA anticipated Western response to India’s position and has crafted befitting and optimum rejoinders. Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, statements from the MEA have been measured and calibrated to pacify the international community.

ALSO READ: Blood On Your Face, Putin!

India has maintained that any act of violent aggression against a sovereign state is deplorable and have urged the warring parties to resolve the crisis diplomatically. Such astute stance and demeanour have in turn led the international community to recognize that it is national interest that has driven India’s voting behaviour at the UN, the precise message that India wanted to convey.

In the contemporary world, any event of such magnitude like the Russian invasion of Ukraine has a ripple effect on the entire world. India’s recent proclivity toward the United States and the new alliances in the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific region has also felt the tremors.

The formulation of the term Indo-Pacific and the subsequent implementation of a counter China strategy through the Quadrilateral Dialogue (QUAD) have been gradually gaining strength in the recent years. Ukraine Crisis and Indian response brought the QUAD and its members to reassess the situation, which is visible in the visits of Heads of states to New Delhi. The Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited New Delhi for an Annual Summit meeting under the ‘Special Strategic and Global Partnership’, but a large part of meeting was devoted to the Ukraine crisis. India accommodated Japanese concerns on the crisis in the statement issued after the deliberations.

Immediately after the Indo-Japan Summit, the Australian PM Scott Morrison also held a virtual summit with Prime Minister Modi. The Aussie PM, while condemning the Russian actions in Ukraine, elicited an understanding of the Indian stance. Further, he elaborated that “he and Modi were of the opinion that the conflict could not be a reason for diverting attention from issues of the Indo-Pacific region”. This indicated that the relationship is not affected. A subtext hidden in the outcome and statements of both summit meetings is a clear indication that geographical distance from an international event still matters. The location of the crisis at the western end of the Eurasian landmass and away from the Indo-Pacific space remains instrumental in geopolitical thinking of Japan and Australia.

The aforementioned summits and their timing point to India’s rising significance in the international system and particularly in the Indo-Pacific. It was only befitting that the Chinese Foreign Minister, Mr. Wang Yi visited New Delhi soon after. This holds tremendous weight in the wake of the ongoing crisis in Eastern Ladakh since the summer of 2020.

It was understood that the Chinese FM was here to invite and persuade the Indian PM to join the BRICS summit in China to be held later in the year. Under the circumstances, Indian diplomacy under the leadership of Dr. Jaishankar has been steadfast and clear in conveying to the Chinese that normalization of relations between the two Asian giants is possible only after complete disengagement at the LAC in Ladakh. Hopefully, before the BRICS Summit, negotiations on the issue will bear results.

Therefore it can be said that the Ukraine Crisis has been turned into a diplomatic opportunity by the Indian diplomatic establishment. The 2+2 summit, Modi-Biden virtual Summit, Indo-Japan Summit, Modi-Morrison virtual summit and finally the visit by the Chinese FM are a testimony to clarity in India’s diplomacy since the crisis began. Moreover, the British Prime Minister Mr. Boris Johnson and the President of the European Union, Ms. Ursula von der Leyen have also visited India in the last week.

Whether it is India’s stand on the crisis or its India’s economic strength or the West’s need, India has become the go-to-destination in the face of deep Russia-China partnership. India has been able to drive home the point that India’s national interests take precedence over international linkages and alliances under the able leadership of Dr. S. Jaishankar, the Minister of External Affairs. This perhaps is the proverbial feather in the cap for Modi government as the top diplomat was elevated to the post of External Affairs Minister in May 2019.

Russian Forces Invaded Ukraine

‘I Regret The Day I Sent My Child To Ukraine For Studies’

Payal Gupta from Ferozabad, Uttar Pradesh, is having sleepless night over her daughter Manvi, an MBBS student in Kharkiv Medical University, Ukraine

Ever since Russian forces invaded Ukraine, my family has not been able to sleep peacefully. We have been praying for the safe return of Manvi, my daughter, an MBBS student in Kharkiv International Medical University, who is stuck amid the military hostilities.

Manvi told me in her last conversation with me that no one from Indian authorities had approached them and she was only getting assurances (on phone) of quick help. I wonder how news channels are boasting of the government success (about the evacuation operation) if my child has not even been contacted by anyone till now. I am tired of giving interviews and details about Manvi every time I confront the media.

It was on February 24 when I saw ‘Breaking News’ on TV that Russian forces have invaded Ukraine. I called Manvi immediately only to get a casual reply from her that it was a routine business between both the countries and we need not worry.

However, in a matter of few hours, Manvi called back to inform us this time the threat was real that all foreign students were worried as Kharkiv is close to the Russian border and strategically important.

Since Feb 25, I, along with other family members, are stuck to the TV praying for the safe return for Manvi and other children. Last heard, my daughter and several of her fellow medical students were stuck in a flat with no electricity and I am constantly trying to get help for them. We are contacting all possible helplines issued by the government of India and furnishing them all the details.

ALSO READ: Will Russia Dismember Ukraine?

On February 28, Manvi told me that they were left with ration for only two to three days, and her group was, somehow, managing with whatever resources they were left with. She said the gas pipeline, electricity supply wires, milk booths etc. were destroyed in the shelling and even their water reserve was depleting fast.

On March 1, she said the Internet facility may also be suspended as most of the means of communication were affected by ruthless shelling in and around Kharkiv. I am left with no other option but to pray to God. She also sent a video of her senior who is venturing out on the street looking for help.

The bombing in Kharkiv is increasing with every passing minute and there are also rumours that Russia is about to use more powerful weapons/bombs. Manvi informed me that the counsellor or the middleman who had arranged for her studies in Ukraine, was making arrangements to evacuate them. However, she refused to share the contact details of the middleman, other than his name Hardeep.

Although she assured me that Hardeep would bring them to India soon, I am having my own doubts about his credentials because Manvi refused to even give me his number. We are just rueing the decision to send her to Ukraine for medical studies.

I pray to every concerned authority, including PM Modi, to make arrangements for safe return of our children.

As told to Rajat Rai