Where is Ukraine Going?

It is not clear what the President of Ukraine expects the end of the war will look like. It is obvious what India’s options are. It is uncertain whether the West has clearly thought out the consequences of its involvement. However, what is clear is that the Ukraine war has started rearranging the order of power in the world, spelling a possible end to a globalised economy and testing world’s leading institutions. If 9/11 precipitated the age of the neurotic State fearful of its own citizens, the Ukraine war is starting the reshuffling of world order and possibly paving the way to reconfigurations of States in future. In this series, I explore each of this in turn.

That Russia is a very powerful country with some successful military campaigns behind it in recent decade cannot be disputed. That Ukraine is relatively a small power with a much smaller army and arsenal compared to Russia is also not contestable.

When Russia surrounded Ukraine in the East and North East, the general view was that if provoked, it would crush Ukraine in a short time. The United States war in Afghanistan lasted nearly 20 years while in Iraq it was about 15 years. The Syrian war is still going on after ten years. Comparatively, the Ukraine war is expected to last much shorter period, perhaps a year.

Ukraine’s choice was between compromising some of its sovereignty or risk war. It bravely chose to take on Russia. The odds are heavy when one compares the military strengths of the two.

With an army of around a million and reserves of around 2 million, Russia also has a phenomenal arsenal. It has 6,255 nuclear warheads, the largest in the world. Some of its hypersonic missile technology surpasses any in the West. It has so far only deployed about 10-15% of its fighting capabilities in Ukraine.

Ukraine is a smaller country with an army of some 200,000 and paramilitary forces consisting of National Guard and Border Guard etc of 60,000. Comparatively it has far fewer weapons, aircraft and missiles and most of them are from the Soviet era, although it has an arms manufacturing industry as well. But training its army, helping with strategy are officers from several western NATO countries, particularly United States and United Kingdom, although both deny any active participation in Ukraine itself having shifted training centres into Germany since February 2022.

ALSO READ: Theatre of Horror In Ukraine

It appears that Russia first surrounded Kyiv from two sides to intimidate Ukraine to give it an opportunity to accept its terms to avoid war. The Russian terms were: Ukraine declare neutrality and pass in law that it would not join NATO. Russia required it to decentralise and give autonomy to Donbas regions, second language status to Russian language and what it calls ‘denazification’ of Ukraine military. Russia considers the Azov forces to be Nazi like outfits. That Azov outfits were hard core right wing with Nazi regalia was also widely reported in most western media until the war started.

Kyiv refused Russian terms. Russia invaded. Having seen that Ukrainian army was intent to fight back ferociously, Russia withdrew and readjusted its tactics to ones it employed in Syria. Concentrating on Donbas as well as South of Ukraine, its approach is merciless destruction and onslaught of key strategic areas using a combination of ground troops and air borne fire. This is producing it results.

There is also suggestions that Russian intelligence about lack of Ukraine resistance was wrong. It is possible that some western agencies may have identified pro-Russian agents and spoon fed them disinformation through Ukrainian officials.

Since the attack, the Ukraine President and other politicians have appealed passionately for the west to get involved directly, either by imposing no fly zones or boots on the ground. However even before the war, USA, UK and European powers had indicated that they would not physically come to Ukraine’s aid. Everyone fears a nuclear war. No one is keen to destroy the whole world yet. The west has nevertheless resorted to sanctions, supply of weapons and training of Ukrainian army. Characteristically Britain has been the most gung-ho, still attempting to play big. Moreover as admitted by US media, the United States has been engaged throughout the campaign in providing intelligence, guiding strategy and targets. Russian media insists that US personnel are on the ground advising tactics, manning equipment etc and some have been captured.

The west seems keen for this war to prolong. It hopes this weakens Russian capability through loss of personnel and armour. It also gives NATO enough intelligence to understand Russian tactics, strategies and the lethal effectiveness or functionalities of its armour. It helps NATO forces to prepare for a real confrontation with Russia.

The West is now suppling some advanced weapons. When used it will be an exhibition of their effectiveness. This increases sales as it already has. US arms producers are expected to gain $17 Billion from supply of these weapons and more in future world orders. Some of its decision makers will gain profits from the new package announced for Ukraine. Türkey has already seen manyfold increase in orders for its Bayraktar drones that have gained legendary status against Russian Tanks. Ukraine has been a proxy fighter for NATO, particularly USA and being used as an arms fair to show piece weapons.

For Russia too, the war is an opportunity to learn. It has been engaged in wars in developing countries and against non-State actors such as Syrian rebels. Ukraine is the first real European fighting machine that it is encountering. Armies can do all the simulation exercises in training, but they harden and mature in real battles. Russian arms saw a five-fold increase in sale after Syria. Although components are becoming difficult due to sanctions, Russia is testing some of its latest lethal weapons from time to time in Ukraine. Their sales will grow after the war.

War is an ugly affair and brings out the worst in humanity despite all the human rights treaties and conventions. It’s a merciless killing ground. Once it starts, few if any morals survive in war.

With all the odds stacked against it, realising that no western armies are flying in to help and possibly conscious that they are now fighting a proxy war at great expense to themselves, it is still not clear what the Ukrainian leadership is realistically hoping to achieve at the end. About a quarter of its population is now displaced and many have fled the country. Its cities have been devastated. It has lost territory.

Whether Russia is right or wrong to have gone into Ukraine is immaterial now. Despite the drama of war crimes courts, Putin isn’t going to face any trial any more than Bush or Blair will face trials for Iraq, unless there is capitulation by Russia and a coup hands him over.  Fortunes of wars are not decided by morality, laws or international conventions but by might. Currently, it does not look good for Ukraine. 

It is all very well to say, Ukrainians have a right to defend themselves. But the western world is indulging its own morals and strategic policies to weaken Russia at the expense of Ukrainian families, children and elderly people, even when the situation looks hopeless.

Russia isn’t going anywhere and Donbas is lost. Russia’s army is still intact. It is weathering the sanctions and seems to have factored in the losses in men and arms. Putin’s ratings are higher domestically. Ukraine’s army has lost about 25% of its personnel. Its weapons are depleting. In some wars, the attacked victim has no choice but to fight or die. Ukraine had choices and still has some. Its choices are now limited as the veteran strategist Henry Kissinger has stated.  Is it time to accept the inevitable and avoid further bloodshed.

(This is the first part of a series on Russia-Ukraine war to appear in these columns)

Weekly Update: Biden As King Henry II; Badals The Invincible; Slap Gets The Oscar

The ageing King, sorry President, Joe Biden, probably forgot he is not absolute sovereign. In Poland he got into King mode and thundered in his emotionally charged but barely audible voice, ‘Who will rid me of that Pesky Putin’ or something like that.

It was King Henry II of England in 1170 who got exasperated with Archbishop Thomas Becket as the somewhat Godly Becket wouldn’t twist Christ’s teachings to suit Henry. In his court with his nearest Knights present, Henry II is reputed to have said. “Will no one rid me of this troublesome priest!” (or perhaps meddlesome).

Henry of course was sovereign King with absolute power. Four of his knights standing in the room, took this as a megaphone hint and went and clobbered the poor pious Archbishop (head priest of England) to death. Henry got his wish or command done. No questions asked and no Government enquiries, police investigation or charges.

When Biden said “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power” at a public function for every bounty hunter in the world, every wannabe assassin and all his arsenal of intelligence services to hear, the world went a bit, ‘What!’. He even spoke on a mic live on TV so it was loud and clear. Every news channel worth a penny or paisa was broadcasting it.

Times have changed. The President of the world’s foremost power that is meant to police international law and order, democratic accountability, and State sovereignty all across the world (except in USA) just seemed to have said, ‘go break the law, fulfil my wish’.

Every leader of almost every NATO state distanced itself from this, plunging America’s already faltering status further into a hungry blackhole. Even Britain’s Boisterous Boris took cover.

America’s first minister to the leader, the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, quickly did a somersault and tried a damage exercise saying, ‘He didn’t mean what you think he meant’. English language has its advantages. It can apparently be translated in several frames of hermeneutic dexterity.

In contrast to the 1170 court of Henry II, the four knights of the United States of America 2022 who were probably meant to get the hint, charge on Putin and dispose him in the way they do, went underground for the first time. The CIA, the FBI, the State Department and Homeland Security, all with ‘unlimited licences to kill’ responded, ‘not my job’ or ‘not done this way, Boss’.

It is possible that Biden got carried away in Poland. It has a lot of old castles and lots of stories of monarchs with great powers and gory deeds in the past. Its current President also ignores EU when he wants to. Biden thought as head of the most powerful country (or once most powerful country before the Taliban ran it out of Afghanistan with WW2 weapons and sandals) he could do a Henry II. Even the megalomaniac Trump didn’t go that far. But Biden has a history.

Badals The Invincsibles

It seems that some political parties have a unique approach to politics playing ‘loser takes all’. The family firm, the Indian National Congress, has been doing this for nearly a decade. Losing seats like a drying stream evaporating water in summer heat, the Congress has repeatedly placed its faith in the unwinnable leadership, the Gandhis. Rahul who has the look of a fish out of water in politics, has had numerous votes of confidence confirming his ‘extraordinary leadership’. Move over Indira Gandhi, Rahul will reign Congress longer than you if the losing streak carries on.

Now it is once great party, the Akali Dal that is outdoing the Congress. From a formidable 75 seats in 1997, it has now landed hard in 2022 with just three. This is the party that once defeated the might of British Empire in the plains of Punjab. It is the party of the Sikhs in the Sikh heartland!

The decline has been inversely proportional to the level of confidence expressed in its leader Sukhbir Singh Badal. It gained just 15 seats in 2017. Every Akali flocked around him saying ‘great result, only Sukhbir can save us’.

In 2022, it has been reduced to a rump. So much so that 94 year old senior Badal who will probably be fighting elections even from his dying bed when he gets there, and son Sukhbir Badal, both lost their seats. The message of the Punjab voters seems to have gone with hypersonic speed through one ear out of the other ear. Consequently, all the Akali Dal (Badal) high command got together and elected Sukhbir as the best Akali leader ever. ‘Only Sukhbir can lead us to victory!’ And its not even a Pollywood comic.

The Akali Dal (Badal) perhaps took its cue from another sister party, the Shiromani Akali Dal Amritsar. Its leader Mann gets elected unanimously after losing every election with the promise of the one messiah that will lead Sikhs to political nirvana, despite the fact that almost no one wants him to.

There must be some logic in this somewhere. As long as these parties were winning, there were constant criticisms and challenges to the winning leaders. But when they started losing, there started unending bowing to the ‘dear leader’, knees first.

Will Bollywood Follow Hollywood

Bollywood has a habit of copying Hollywood. It copies films, dance style, stories, even character types. After all it is celluloid. If it does not mimic life, it mimics competitors.

Hollywood has its Oscars, Bollywood has its International Indian Film Academy. The word Academy gives it a pretence of the Hollywood Academy Awards.

Since Bollywood likes to Indianise or Hindi-ise most of Hollywood, one wonders if in the next IIFA there will be a version of the Will Smith drama simulated in the award ceremony. It’s good for the rating and the mimic game.

As every Bollywood wallah knows, Will Smith couldn’t stomach a joke at his wife’s expense made by Chris Rock. So he got up and threw a right (or may be left) hook or slap on Rock right in the middle of the ceremony while the world was watching.

He even swore in the bargain. Many thought it was an act. But it was real. Will Smith apologised when he went to pick his own best actor award.

We don’t know what it will do to Will Smith’s image. But it certainly got the Oscars more audience than the Ukraine war which is reaching a fatigue point with audiences. Everyone is talking about ‘not talking about’ Will Smith and that slap or outburst. ‘Did you watch that Simi, Bunty or Radha or whoever?’ It is burning out the social media. It is headlines on the main media.

So wait for good old mimic Bollywood version of this in the next IIFA. It may not be an exact narrative, but the crystal ball says there will be some drama that will get IIFA in the news. You heard it ‘prophesised’ first as Saturn joins pattern.