Ukraine Russian Troops

Ukraine Claims It Killed 400 Russian Troops In Makiivka, Russia Says 66

Ukraine has claimed that 400 Russian soldiers were killed and 300 others injured after Ukrainian armed forces struck a Russian military base in the Makiivka region of Donetsk, The Kyiv Independent reported citing the Strategic Communications Department of Ukraine’s military post on Telegram.

According to the Ukraine-based news publication The Kyiv Independent, Russian soldiers were stationed in a local school building. Ukrainian General Staff has not reported on the strike in Makiivka. However, in its daily update, Ukraine’s General Staff said that 760 Russian troops were killed on December 30.

Meanwhile, the Russian Defence Ministry said that Ukraine’s strike has killed 63 soldiers of Russia through US-manufactured HIMARS, TASS reported. Speaking to reporters, the Russian Defence Ministry said that Ukrainian forces hit six rockets HIMARS at the temporary deployment point of one of the units of Russian armed forces in the Makiivka region of Donetsk. It further announced that Russian air defence systems shot down two HIMARS rockets.

“The Kyiv regime struck with six rockets of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system at the temporary deployment point of one of the units of the Russian armed forces in the area of the settlement of Makeevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic,” TASS quoted the Russian Defence Ministry as saying.

“As a result of the destruction of four missiles with a high-explosive warhead of the temporary deployment point, 63 Russian servicemen were killed,” it further said.

The Russian Defence Ministry in its daily report on January 2 said that its air defence facilities shot down 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Shipilovka, Liman, Kremennaya, Ploshchanka, Chervonaya Dibrova, Petrovskoye, Novognatovka, Nikolayevka, Skelki, Ocheretovatoye, Rubanovka and Lopatki.

Furthermore, the Russian Defence Ministry in its statement released on the website said that Moscow intercepted three rocket-propelled projectiles launched by Olkha and Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) near Krasnaya Gora, Podgornoye and Radensk.

In the statement, the Russian Defence Ministry said that Russia destroyed two US-manufactured M-777 artillery systems at their firing positions near Chasiv Yar and Minkovka. It further claimed that one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled howitzer has been destroyed near Antonivka and four Ukrainian D-30 howitzers have been destroyed at their firing positions near Serebryanka. (ANI)

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S Jaishankar on Russian oil imports

Would Like To Keep It Going: Jaishankar On Russian Oil Imports

India’s relationship with Russia has worked to its advantage and New Delhi would like to keep that going, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said on Tuesday, as he reaffirmed strong ties with Moscow, describing the country as a steady and time-tested partner.

Jaishankar made these remarks during a joint press conference along with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow.
Answering a question about India’s increasing oil import amid western outcry, he said, “There is stress on the energy market created by a combination of factors. But as the world’s third-largest consumer… a consumer where the level of income is not very high, it is our obligation to ensure that the Indian consumer has the best possible access to the most advantageous terms on the international market.”

“…in that respect, the India-Russia relationship has worked to my advantage. If it works to my advantage, I would like to keep that going,” he added.

The external affairs minister said his presence in Moscow to review bilateral cooperation speaks volumes about India-Russia cooperation.

“The fact that I am here today with a delegation to review our cooperation speaks about India-Russia cooperation to see how we can take it forward to create a long-term and sustainable basis, says it all,” he said.

He further pointed out, how for India, Russia has been a steady and time-tested partner.

“…I said any objective evaluation of our relations for many decades would confirm that it has served both our countries very well., If it has served my country for many many decades. I think you can see the obvious interests and commitment I would have in keeping that relationship strong and steady,” he added.

The war in Ukraine which started in February has had a significant impact on global food security and has led to a sudden increase in crude prices following western sanctions on Moscow.

Earlier, India said its oil imports will be determined by its national interest and its large consumer base.

New Delhi has not condemned Russia since the start of the conflict and has maintained its independent position. However, on several UN forums, New Delhi has consistently called for a cessation of violence and advocated peace and diplomacy. (ANI)

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Truss Wishes Sunak Every Success As She Exits Power

Former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss on Tuesday wished new Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak ‘every success’ as she exits power.

The outgoing PM Liz Truss in a statement outside 10 Downing Street said that she wishes “every success” to Rishi Sunak, adding she looks forward to spending more time in her constituency and serving the country from the back benches.
She also reiterated UK’s support for Ukraine and said, “We must support Ukraine in its brave fight against Putin’s aggression. Ukraine must prevail and we must continue to strengthen our nation’s defences. That’s what I have been striving to achieve and I wish Rishi Sunak every success for good of our country.”

She also called for lowering taxes and delivering growth, Truss said, “We need to take advantage of our Brexit freedoms to do things differently. This means delivering more freedom for our own citizens and restoring power for our democratic institutions.”

“It means lower taxes so people can keep more of the money they earn. And it means delivering growth that will lead to more job security, higher wages and more opportunities for our children and grandchildren,” she added.

Truss said that her government had acted “urgently and decisively” to help hard-working families.

She said she had helped thousands of businesses to avoid bankruptcy, and taken back energy independence so we’re “no longer reliant on malign foreign powers.”

Truss started her farewell speech by saying it has been “a huge honour” to be Prime Minister and to lead the nation in mourning the death of Queen Elizabeth II and welcoming the accession of King Charles.

Truss also quoted Roman philosopher Seneca, “It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that things are difficult,” while reiterating that the UK is “more convinced than ever that we need to be bold and confront the challenges we face”.

Ending her speech, Truss said, “We continue to battle through a storm but I believe in Britain, I believe in the British people and I know that brighter days lie ahead.”

On Monday, former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak became the Conservative Party leader less than two months after he lost to Liz Truss in the Tory leadership race. Sunak’s change in fate was triggered by the resignation of Truss after her high-profile sacking and resignation in her cabinet, following a heavily criticised mini-budget that left the UK pound tumbling.

After she was forced to step down just 45 days into office, Truss became the shortest-serving British PM. Standing before 10 Downing Street, Truss said that she recognizes she “cannot deliver the mandate” on which she was elected.

Truss’ ascent to power was paved by the Tory leadership crisis following Boris Johnson’s resignation in July, after a series of resignations of cabinet members, who protested against his scandal-plagued leadership.

New UK Prime Minister-designate Sunak vowed to work daily to deliver for the British people.

“I pledge that I will serve you with integrity and humility and I will work day in and day out to deliver for the British people,” Sunak said at Conservative HQ in London.

He also paid tribute to former UK PM Liz Truss for her “dignified” leadership “under difficult circumstances abroad and at home”.

Sunak said that he is “humbled and honoured” to have the support of his fellow MPs and be elected leader.

Sunak’s change in fate was triggered by the resignation of Truss after her high-profile sacking and resignation in her cabinet, following a heavily criticised mini-budget that left the UK pound tumbling.

Following Truss’s short stint as British prime minister, Rishi Sunak and former Prime Minister Boris Johnson were seen as frontrunners for the UK PM bid.

But Boris Johnson ruled himself out of the Conservative party leadership race despite claiming he had the required support. The former UK PM said he had come to the conclusion “this would simply not be the right thing to do” as “you can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in Parliament.”

Sunak is born in Southampton to parents of Indian descent who migrated to Britain from East Africa.

Earlier in April, reports of Akshata’s non-domicile status and alleged tax evasion had created a controversy. Sunak had said his wife has been paying all taxes. Her spokesperson had earlier said that Akshata Murthy “has always and will continue to pay UK taxes on all her UK income”. (ANI)

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Russian President Vladimir Putin

Putin Threatens Harsh Reprisals After Crimea Bridge Attack

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday warned of “harsh” reprisals after the Crimea bridge attack on Saturday.

In a television appearance Monday, Putin said Russia had struck military and infrastructure targets across Ukraine following the Crimea bridge blast.
Putin threatened further “harsh” responses that correspond “to the level of threat to the Russian Federation, have no doubt about it,” while accusing Kyiv of “terrorism.”

In what appears to be the heaviest wave of missile and rocket attacks since the opening week of the war, Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities were rocked by deadly Russian strikes on Monday.

Officials said they targeted critical energy infrastructure and several regions of Ukraine are now suffering power outages.

The Kremlin said today that a huge missile salvo across Ukraine launched by its forces was within the framework of what Russia calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the attack on the Kerch bridge, a key link between the Russian mainland and Crimea.

Eleven sites of critical infrastructure have been struck in Kyiv and eight other regions of Ukraine, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

Some of the regions are experiencing blackouts,” Shmyhal said. “We must be ready for temporary disruptions with power connections and water supply.”

A senior Ukrainian military official has said “generations of Russians will answer” for a wave of explosions that struck multiple Ukrainian cities on Monday.

“The Russians are shameful losers. Did you intend to scare us?” Andrii Yermak, head of President Zelenskyy’s office, said of the attacks.

“There will be a harsh response to every hit. You will be held responsible for every death and suffering. And not only you. Entire generations of Russians will answer,” Yermak said on Telegram.

“We will continue to destroy everyone who comes to Ukraine with weapons. These hits make us even angrier. These hits will only speed up our progress.

“We are not afraid. We are only getting angrier and more accurate,” Yermak added.

Powerful explosions rang across Kyiv on Monday morning, leaving multiple people dead. At the same time, regional authorities also reported missile and rocket attacks in Kharkiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk, partly aimed at critical civilian infrastructure.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the missile strikes targeted Ukraine’s energy facilities and its people.

“They have especially chosen the time and the targets to create the most damage,” he said while standing outside his office in the center of Kyiv.

Moscow wanted to destroy Ukraine’s “energy system,” Zelenskyy said, adding that the Ukrainians shot down 38 incoming projectiles. He urged people to stay in shelters on Monday.

Further south, a Ukrainian official also confirmed that Russian missiles are targeting power infrastructure in the Mykolaiv region.

“They are hitting the infrastructure, trying to leave us without electricity,” Vitalii Kim, head of the Mykolaiv regional military administration, said on Telegram.

After reports of Russian missile attacks across Ukraine on Monday morning, Kyiv’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter that Russian President Vladimir Putin “will not break Ukraine down.”

“Putin’s only tactic is a terror on peaceful Ukrainian cities, but he will not break Ukraine down. This is also his response to all appeasers who want to talk with him about peace: Putin is a terrorist who talks with missiles,” Kuleba tweeted.

Amid multiple explosions in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities early Monday, Zelenskyy said Russia was trying to annihilate Ukraine.

The series of Russian missiles launched at Ukraine on Monday morning was aimed at “critical infrastructure to destroy the country’s energy supply,” according to a Ukrainian government official.

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, also warned Ukrainians to be prepared for blackouts.

“Power facilities from Lviv to Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv to Khmelnytskyi region, Dnipro and Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk region, Sumy region, Kharkiv region, Zhytomyr region, Kirovohrad, and the entire south are targeted,” Tymoshenko said on Telegram.

“This may affect the stability of the energy supply, so we need to be prepared for the consequences of such shelling, up to rolling blackouts,” he added.

The Ukrainian State Emergency Service said there is no electricity supply in five regions — Lviv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Ternopil — and power supply has been partially disrupted in the rest of the country.

Meanwhile, the G7 group of nations will hold an emergency meeting via video conference on Tuesday, the office of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed to CNN. Scholz is the current G7 president under its rotating leadership.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he would address the meeting. “My speech is scheduled, in which I’ll tell about the terrorist attacks by [the Russian Federation], he said on Twitter.

The G7 consists of the seven leaders from some of the world’s largest economies: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Russia was indefinitely suspended from the group — then the G8 — in 2014 after its illegal annexation of Crimea.

At least 10 people have died and 60 are injured in Ukraine after a wave of Russian attacks across the country on Monday morning, police spokesperson Maryana Reva said in an interview on Ukrainian TV.

Multiple European political figures roundly condemned Russia’s spate of attacks on Ukrainian cities on Monday.

“Deeply shocked by Russia’s attacks on civilians in #Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine. Such acts have no place in (the) 21st century. I condemn them in the strongest possible terms,” the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell said. “We stand with Ukraine. Additional military support from the EU is on its way,” Borrell tweeted Monday.

“Again, Putin is massively terrorizing innocent civilians in Kyiv and other cities in [Ukraine]. (The Netherlands) condemns these heinous acts. Putin does not seem to understand that the will of the Ukrainian people is unbreakable. Ukraine remains determined, and we continue to support Ukraine,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte tweeted.

Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo tweeted that the “bombardment of Kyiv and of civilian targets in many other cities is a reprehensible act by Russia. It is an unacceptable escalation of violence that strengthens Belgium’s resolve in supporting the people of Ukraine and their brave fight for a free and sovereign nation.”

“Shocking images are coming once again from Ukraine this morning! I strongly condemn Russian missile attacks against civilian targets and critical infrastructure in Ukraine. The only intention behind these attacks is to terrorize the civilian population. Stay strong Ukrainians!” tweeted Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Xavier Bettel.

Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger tweeted that he condemns “today’s cowardly attacks of Russian forces on #civilians and civilian infrastructure in #Ukraine.

French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna also tweeted to condemn the attacks. “I condemn in the strongest terms today’s indiscriminate Russian strikes against Ukrainian cities. Intentionally targeting civilian populations is a war crime,” she said.

And Italy also reiterated its “unwavering and steadfast support for Ukraine, its people, and its resilience.”

The Italian foreign ministry said it was “horrified by the cowardly missile attacks which hit the center of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.” (ANI)

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Elon Musk On Twitter

Elon Slammed By Ukrainian Over Tweets On Russia

Tesla CEO Elon Musk drew backlash from Ukrainian officials, including Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his Tweets advising on how to bring about “peace” amid the ongoing war between Moscow and Kyiv.

Musk, through his official Twitter handle, tried out a Twitter poll to end Russian actions in Ukraine. Tesla’s CEO floated a number of ideas to solve the conflict, asking his followers to vote “yes” or “no” on his proposals, which included formally allowing Russia to annex Crimea.

Musk, who is also chief executive of SpaceX, said: “Russia is doing partial mobilization.” They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is at risk. Death on both sides will be devastating. Russia has >3 times the population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace. “

Irked over the billionaire’s comments, Ukrainian former Ambassador to Germany Andrij Melnyk lashed out at Musk.

“Fuck off is my very diplomatic reply to you,” Melnyk said in a Tweet. “The only outcome that now no Ukrainian will EVER buy your f…ing tesla crap. So good luck to you,” he said in another tweet.

While Zelenskyy tweeted offering two responses: one who supports Ukraine, one who supports Russia: “Which @elonmusk do you like more?,”

Russian President Vladimir Putin last week formally announced the annexation of four regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—and claimed that “this is the will of millions of people.”

On February 24, Russia began a special military operation in Ukraine after the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics requested help in defending themselves. What followed the military operation was a slew of sanctions imposed by the western countries targeting the Russian economy. (ANI)

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Putin Provoke Colour Revolution

West Ready To Provoke Colour Revolution In Any Country: Putin

Accusing the West of provoking colour revolution in any country for geopolitical gains, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday said that the West has “plundered” countries like India in contradiction to the values of “truth, freedom and justice.”

“The West … began its colonial policy back in the Middle Ages, and then followed the slave trade, the genocide of Indian tribes in America, the plunder of India, of Africa, the wars of England and France against China … What they did was hooking entire nations on drugs, deliberately exterminate entire ethnic groups,” said Putin in the St George’s Hall at a Kremlin ceremony where he declared the annexation of four regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia.
“For the sake of land and resources, they hunted people like animals. This is contrary to the very nature of man, truth, freedom and justice,” he added as he condemned West for stirring up new conflicts.

Putin said that the West stands ready to provoke revolution in any country. “Following their goals, our geopolitical opponents – our opponents as we called them until quite recently – are prepared to put anyone, any country, in the line of fire; to turn it into the epicenter of a crisis; to provoke a “color revolution” and unleash a bloodbath.”

“We have seen all this on more than one occasion. We also know that the West works on scenarios to stir up new conflicts in the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) area. But we have enough of them as it is. You need but look at what’s happening now between Russia and Ukraine, what’s happening on the borders of some other CIS countries.”

In an all-out attack on the West, Putin in the ceremony formally announced the annexation of four regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia and claimed that “this is the will of millions of people.”

He also attacked the West as ‘satanic’ and hailed ‘traditional’ Russian values.

“Do we really want in our schools, from the elementary grades, that children were imposed perversions that lead to degradation and extinction? That they were taught that besides a man and a woman there were some other genders and were offered sex-change operations? Do we really want this for our country, for our children? All this is unacceptable for us, we have our own, different future,” he said as he slammed western values.

“There are four new regions of Russia,” Putin said in a lengthy speech declaring the annexation of Ukrainian territories in the St George’s Hall at a Kremlin ceremony. The speech was filled with highly critical rhetoric about Ukraine and its Western allies, reported Al Jazeera.

Putin said the residents in the four annexed regions will now be Russia’s “citizens forever”.

While denying seeking revival of the Soviet Union by the said annexation, Putin accused Western states – which have imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Moreover, in a strong statement, Putin also added that Russia would now defend its new territory “with all the means at its disposal.”

Defending its decision to go ahead with the referendum and announce the annexation of the region, the Russian President argued it was the “integral right” of people in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia to join Russia, reported Al Jazeera.

Speaking further, Putin claimed that the people in eastern Ukraine made up of Donetsk and Luhansk – had been “victims of inhumane terrorist attacks conducted by the Kyiv regime”.

He also called the result of the referendum “the will of millions of people.”

In a major move by Russia, President Vladimir Putin had signed a decree recognizing the so-called “independence” of the Ukrainian regions Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Moreover, the UN Security Council is set to vote Friday on a resolution that would seek to condemn Russia for its referenda in four regions under Russian control but claimed by Ukraine, media reports said.

The US-sponsored resolution would call on all countries not to recognise the change in the status of the four regions, CNN reported. The resolution, which is also backed by Albania, would reaffirm the UN commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said any annexation of a state’s territory by another state resulting from a “threat or use of force” is a violation of the UN charter and international law. Moreover, US has slapped new sanctions on Russia after Moscow declared independence of the seized Ukrainian territories and separatist regions. (ANI)

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Where is Ukraine Going?

It is not clear what the President of Ukraine expects the end of the war will look like. It is obvious what India’s options are. It is uncertain whether the West has clearly thought out the consequences of its involvement. However, what is clear is that the Ukraine war has started rearranging the order of power in the world, spelling a possible end to a globalised economy and testing world’s leading institutions. If 9/11 precipitated the age of the neurotic State fearful of its own citizens, the Ukraine war is starting the reshuffling of world order and possibly paving the way to reconfigurations of States in future. In this series, I explore each of this in turn.

That Russia is a very powerful country with some successful military campaigns behind it in recent decade cannot be disputed. That Ukraine is relatively a small power with a much smaller army and arsenal compared to Russia is also not contestable.

When Russia surrounded Ukraine in the East and North East, the general view was that if provoked, it would crush Ukraine in a short time. The United States war in Afghanistan lasted nearly 20 years while in Iraq it was about 15 years. The Syrian war is still going on after ten years. Comparatively, the Ukraine war is expected to last much shorter period, perhaps a year.

Ukraine’s choice was between compromising some of its sovereignty or risk war. It bravely chose to take on Russia. The odds are heavy when one compares the military strengths of the two.

With an army of around a million and reserves of around 2 million, Russia also has a phenomenal arsenal. It has 6,255 nuclear warheads, the largest in the world. Some of its hypersonic missile technology surpasses any in the West. It has so far only deployed about 10-15% of its fighting capabilities in Ukraine.

Ukraine is a smaller country with an army of some 200,000 and paramilitary forces consisting of National Guard and Border Guard etc of 60,000. Comparatively it has far fewer weapons, aircraft and missiles and most of them are from the Soviet era, although it has an arms manufacturing industry as well. But training its army, helping with strategy are officers from several western NATO countries, particularly United States and United Kingdom, although both deny any active participation in Ukraine itself having shifted training centres into Germany since February 2022.

ALSO READ: Theatre of Horror In Ukraine

It appears that Russia first surrounded Kyiv from two sides to intimidate Ukraine to give it an opportunity to accept its terms to avoid war. The Russian terms were: Ukraine declare neutrality and pass in law that it would not join NATO. Russia required it to decentralise and give autonomy to Donbas regions, second language status to Russian language and what it calls ‘denazification’ of Ukraine military. Russia considers the Azov forces to be Nazi like outfits. That Azov outfits were hard core right wing with Nazi regalia was also widely reported in most western media until the war started.

Kyiv refused Russian terms. Russia invaded. Having seen that Ukrainian army was intent to fight back ferociously, Russia withdrew and readjusted its tactics to ones it employed in Syria. Concentrating on Donbas as well as South of Ukraine, its approach is merciless destruction and onslaught of key strategic areas using a combination of ground troops and air borne fire. This is producing it results.

There is also suggestions that Russian intelligence about lack of Ukraine resistance was wrong. It is possible that some western agencies may have identified pro-Russian agents and spoon fed them disinformation through Ukrainian officials.

Since the attack, the Ukraine President and other politicians have appealed passionately for the west to get involved directly, either by imposing no fly zones or boots on the ground. However even before the war, USA, UK and European powers had indicated that they would not physically come to Ukraine’s aid. Everyone fears a nuclear war. No one is keen to destroy the whole world yet. The west has nevertheless resorted to sanctions, supply of weapons and training of Ukrainian army. Characteristically Britain has been the most gung-ho, still attempting to play big. Moreover as admitted by US media, the United States has been engaged throughout the campaign in providing intelligence, guiding strategy and targets. Russian media insists that US personnel are on the ground advising tactics, manning equipment etc and some have been captured.

The west seems keen for this war to prolong. It hopes this weakens Russian capability through loss of personnel and armour. It also gives NATO enough intelligence to understand Russian tactics, strategies and the lethal effectiveness or functionalities of its armour. It helps NATO forces to prepare for a real confrontation with Russia.

The West is now suppling some advanced weapons. When used it will be an exhibition of their effectiveness. This increases sales as it already has. US arms producers are expected to gain $17 Billion from supply of these weapons and more in future world orders. Some of its decision makers will gain profits from the new package announced for Ukraine. Türkey has already seen manyfold increase in orders for its Bayraktar drones that have gained legendary status against Russian Tanks. Ukraine has been a proxy fighter for NATO, particularly USA and being used as an arms fair to show piece weapons.

For Russia too, the war is an opportunity to learn. It has been engaged in wars in developing countries and against non-State actors such as Syrian rebels. Ukraine is the first real European fighting machine that it is encountering. Armies can do all the simulation exercises in training, but they harden and mature in real battles. Russian arms saw a five-fold increase in sale after Syria. Although components are becoming difficult due to sanctions, Russia is testing some of its latest lethal weapons from time to time in Ukraine. Their sales will grow after the war.

War is an ugly affair and brings out the worst in humanity despite all the human rights treaties and conventions. It’s a merciless killing ground. Once it starts, few if any morals survive in war.

With all the odds stacked against it, realising that no western armies are flying in to help and possibly conscious that they are now fighting a proxy war at great expense to themselves, it is still not clear what the Ukrainian leadership is realistically hoping to achieve at the end. About a quarter of its population is now displaced and many have fled the country. Its cities have been devastated. It has lost territory.

Whether Russia is right or wrong to have gone into Ukraine is immaterial now. Despite the drama of war crimes courts, Putin isn’t going to face any trial any more than Bush or Blair will face trials for Iraq, unless there is capitulation by Russia and a coup hands him over.  Fortunes of wars are not decided by morality, laws or international conventions but by might. Currently, it does not look good for Ukraine. 

It is all very well to say, Ukrainians have a right to defend themselves. But the western world is indulging its own morals and strategic policies to weaken Russia at the expense of Ukrainian families, children and elderly people, even when the situation looks hopeless.

Russia isn’t going anywhere and Donbas is lost. Russia’s army is still intact. It is weathering the sanctions and seems to have factored in the losses in men and arms. Putin’s ratings are higher domestically. Ukraine’s army has lost about 25% of its personnel. Its weapons are depleting. In some wars, the attacked victim has no choice but to fight or die. Ukraine had choices and still has some. Its choices are now limited as the veteran strategist Henry Kissinger has stated.  Is it time to accept the inevitable and avoid further bloodshed.

(This is the first part of a series on Russia-Ukraine war to appear in these columns)

Ukraine Conflict

Blood On Your Face!

A portrait of Stalin hangs on the wall. The lector reads a report on Stalin, then, the choir sings a song about Stalin, and, finally, an actor declaims a poem about Stalin. What’s the occasion? An evening commemorating the hundredth anniversary of Pushkin’s death.
(A student tells this joke. For this crime, the student gets ten years in the labour and death camps, without the right of correspondence.)
Second-Hand Time by Svetlana Alexievich

Stalin allegedly used to write poetry in his youth. So did Pol Pot, the butcher, and General Mohammed Ershad of Bangladesh. So did, perhaps, Idi Amin of Uganda and Augusto Pinochet of Chile.

Perhaps, Vladimir Putin too writes his own brand of botoxed poetry bloodied with the bloody redness of innocence — from Kiev to Lviv. Certainly, they would all be verse, as terrible as the terrible poetry Stalin wrote during his Georgian youth.

Think of Russia: 10,000 or more young soldiers dead. For no rhyme or reason. Most of them from the provinces did not even know why they were fighting this war, why they were killing people who looked like them and spoke their language and ate the same food and sang the same songs and shared the same oral traditions of the war against fascism.

Treacherous Generals! Thus wrote great Spanish poet Fredrico Garcia Lorca. So, he was shot in the woods by perhaps a footsoldier of another general, while, perhaps, another general gave him shelter. Several top generals of the Russian top brass have been killed in combat. Where have you ever heard generals fighting in the frontlines, except in those magical, mythical, medieval times?

As the sad song goes: It‘s happening in Russia. It is happening in Russia!

As another great poet, Pablo Neruda, a buddy of Lorca, wrote: Come and see the blood on the streets. Come and see the blood on the streets. Come and see the blood on the streets…

Think of Ukraine. Come and see the dead on the streets of Bucha. At Kharkhiv and Irpin. In the outskirts of Lviv and Kiev. Out there in the smoked-out Eastern Front of Ukraine. Hands tied at the back, some bodies. An entire family shot and dumped in the garden. A theatre bombed out. A railway station ravaged by hell-fire.

Dead children and mothers. A few million turned refugees; no more the warmth of their cosy homes in this freezing cold. Now, borderline cases stranded on various European borders: Lithuania, Moldova, Poland…

ALSO READ: Theatre Of Horror In Ukraine

In this grotesque anti-poetry Putin has penned, there are no between the lines. No verse or pause, silence or nuance. Only the sinister shadow of Ivan the Terrible, the Tsar of Russia, And, of course, Totalitarian Stalin of the Great Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). And he knows so well that this mindless war waged by him for mindless reasons, he has already lost. He lost it on Day One! He did.

Isolated in Europe and the West, and across the world, a megalomaniac Putin, a ruler for life, can’t even have his last hurrah. Another dictator with a half-twisted smile, in China, also a ruler for life, with his alleged communist hangover, seems to have backstabbed him on Ukraine. So, what will the hallucinating Tsar do now?

His banking system has been turned almost redundant, his lucrative oil economy is bleeding, the rouble has shrunk, his international financial system has collapsed, his finest sycophants in his caricature of a cabinet have all been sanctioned, his best billionaire buddies are finding their assets frozen, including the super-luxury yachts parked at multiple ports; so, what will Putin do now?

Till this day, even as it becomes 60 days and more, in a post-modern era where wars, rare as they are, are fought on the battlefronts in short, decisive stints, and, where diplomacy rules the roost,  this long march to eternity has only nowhere as a dead-end. Till this day, Putin and his beleaguered and confused armed forces, have not been able to win any city or town, port or infrastructure, despite the huge military resources at his command. Even from Chernobyl they have withdrawn.

Reports The Guardian: “Mariupol has become a symbol of Ukraine’s unexpectedly fierce resistance since Russian troops invaded the former Soviet state on February 24.” The UN World Food Programme has stated that 100,000 plus citizens in ravaged Mariupol are starving and there is serious scarcity of water, sanitation and heating. Undoubtedly, it is a major humanitarian catastrophe, and the blame squarely falls on Putin.

“The city still has not fallen,” the Ukrainian Prime Minister said on Sunday. “There’s still our military forces, our soldiers. So they will fight to the end,” he told ABC’s The Week. “We will not surrender.”

Putin and his commanders tried the strategy of putting the capital of Ukraine under siege for days. In contrast, even the satellite towns did not surrender, so brave, strategic and resilient has been the Ukrainian response on the ground. Hence, now top European leaders are making a beeline for Kiev, right under the nose of Putin, standing with the troops and the brave, fighting citizens of Ukraine. Even Joe Biden might land up at Kiev anytime soon, and as did Boris Johnson in a sudden, surprise, solidarity visit.

Hence, while the brilliant comic star of reality TV and valiant president and soldier in fatigue on the frontlines, Volodimir Zelenskiy, fights a winning battle 24/7 with his back to the wall, with clever rhetoric and imaginative manuevering, Putin stands cornered, ghettoized and isolated. All he now has is the dream to capture Donbas and Lugansk, etc, and focus on the Eastern Front, like he did with Crimea in the past. That is, indeed, a big loss to his grand project of extending the Great Stalinist Soviet Empire!

All he could do therefore was order massacres, executions, Stalin-style, indiscriminate bombing and missiles flying into homes, hospitals and schools. Surely, these are no signs of a smart and strategic military commander sitting in Moscow which led such a stoic and sustained battle for months in the frozen landscape in Stalingrad and Leningrad.

Putin seems to have willfully forgotten that more than 20 million Russians died in the protracted war against fascism, whereby, the Red Army first liberated Berlin, whereby, Adolf Hitler and his wife, then, chose to commit suicide. Many of the millions who died came from Ukrain and neighbouring  Belarus, also ruled by a tin-pot dictator, another best buddy of the Tsar in Moscow.

The tragic epic hereby unfolding is heart-breaking: between the young men and women fighting each other in a meaningless war in Ukraine, there is a history of deep, intrinsic, intimate and shared memory. These shared memories are stronger than war, victory or defeat. They are childhood memories, spoken as fairy tales turned real, inside the warmth of the home and hearth, around a soft, crackling fire, as the snow would fall over the meadows like sheets of white, and the howling wind would creep in through the cracks in the window. These are real stories, and they shall never die.

Nobel Prize winning journalist Svetlana Alexeviech narrates another joke cracked by the grandson of a seasoned communist and party card holder who was tortured and brutalized in all kinds of dingy hell-holes during the Stalinist purges for reasons no one knows till this day. His wife, also a card-holder, died of the brutality, cold and hunger in prison. The joke:

A professor and an Old Bolshevik are at a séance. The professor: ‘From the very beginning, communism was based on an error. Remember the song: Our train is flying forward… The next stop is the commune…’

The Old Bolshevik: “Of course, I do. What’s the problem? Trains don’t fly.’

Russia-Ukraine: Indian Neutrality Under Strain

As the world hurtles down the road to a violent cold war 2.0, no speed-breakers are in sight. Explosions in the latest war zone and furious diplomatic postures have failed to muffle the cries of hundreds killed and a million-plus rendered homeless — and the fears of students, no matter which nationality, ejected from their classrooms.

As one worries over prospects of a possible World War III with nuclear weapons, no lessons have been learnt from the previous two. As part of a colonial empire, India contributed hugely with resources and soldiers, thousands of whom never returned home.

The stakes are many times higher now. Not a distant thunder, the conflict in Ukraine poses India a big diplomatic challenge with prospects of huge economic fallout. The immediate worry is of Ukrainian supplies of the sunflower oil. More significant are the fuels from Russia that has invaded Ukraine.

Objectively viewed from India, one cannot condone any invasion. But it is equally difficult to ignore what has led to it.  Russia has been pushed to the brink ever since the Soviet Union dissolved. Within limited space available here, it must be stated that a triumphal United States-led West has reneged and disregarded each treaty it has signed in the last three decades.

Despite clear understanding, 14 countries that were either part of the erstwhile USSR, or were its allies under the Warsaw Pact, have been admitted to the European Union and/or the NATO. Moscow has been systematically sought to be emasculated of its military and economic strength. The West has ignored warnings from its own scholars and security experts who warned of Russian reaction. That has finally come.

President Vladimir Putin saw his now-or-never chance to push back when the West knocked at its Ukraine doors. Ukraine is the resumed cold war’s prized-pick, a football, and encouraged and armed by the West, also a willing participant in the big-power tussle.  

Tacit support from China, now the Number One challenger to the US/West, has bolstered Putin’s response. But Beijing will not help cushion the damage the conflict has brought Russia in military, economic and diplomatic terms.

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On the other hand, China could be the biggest beneficiary. Like the US that has pushed more and more arms into Ukraine and will continue to profit by playing on European fears. Moscow, hit by Western sanctions, will become heavily dependent on Beijing. This is foregone, whatever the outcome of the current conflict.

Putin miscalculated doubly when he failed to force a regime change in Ukraine and did not find the local support, even from ethnic Russians. To his dismay, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an actor-dancer-turned-politician till 2019, is fighting back. Zelenskyy has refused to be evacuated and become another Cao Kỳ (South Vietnam) or even Ashraf Ghani (Afghanistan), and is Europe’s new hero.

One recalls intense Soviet pressures on India in 1971 to achieve the military objective and end the conflict fast. India did that in two weeks with Bangladesh’s liberation. Moscow had held out with the UN Security Council vetoes and ensured China’s inaction, if not neutrality. It worked then. Nine days since Putin’s “special military operation” was launched (as this is being written) is too short a time to conclude if Putin has attained his objective.

It is likely that the Russian war machine may eventually gain Ukraine’s notional control. But it will be a pyrrhic victory with uncertain, violent borders. The regime change that Putin wants will require him to deploy more soldiers on the ground to retain control, even more so, if it leads to insurgency. The prospects are daunting, and Russia cannot afford another Afghanistan.

A question nobody seems to ask is, what would happen to President Biden if Ukraine is lost, so soon after the humiliating evacuation from Afghanistan. Too early to predict the 2024 elections, but the US has a strong political system.

By comparison and contrast, what if Putin loses out completely? A strong political system that makes his answerable is absent in Russia, like the erstwhile Communist Party that could replace him. Supreme, Putin can get away – at the expense of Russian people.

As of now, Putin has lost the battle of perceptions. The global media, well under the control of the US/West, is painting him as the aggressor. Coupled with social media, the discourse is heavily anti-Russia. Anyone can take a photo with cellphone and circulate. That makes the cold war’s resumption stark.

Excluding the sane and objective minds (including many in the US/West), nobody lends an ear to Putin’s fulminations on how and why the world witnessed conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria, other trouble-spots, and fomenting of faith-based rebellions across Asia and Africa. The media’s world is unipolar.

With its experience of evacuating people from war-hit zones and airlifting 170,000 people during the 1990 Kuwait crisis, India has done well to evacuate the students who went through harrowing time. The government has been accused of not foreseeing the crisis. Nobody has pondered whether students who spent precious money to be in Ukraine would have agreed. The better-off Indians stranded in Kuwait were reluctant.

Fending off Western pressures, India has stayed neutral at the UNSC and rightly so. It has to strike a balance as it did, under varying circumstances, in the past. But the question is, how long, on the current crisis? India has signaled willingness to counter a Russian claim, made by none less than Putin, of Ukrainian authorities holding Indian students hostage.

Besides the need to deal with Eurasia, India is the biggest among 45 other nations that import Russian defence systems. India’s dependence on Russia, estimated at anything between 60 to 80 percent, may reduce only over time.

The US waiver on Delhi’s defence purchases from Moscow will become more difficult. Reports are that some deals with Russia have already been cancelled. It may capitulate, like it did over Iranian oil imports. With an adversarial China on the Russian side, the pressures will multiply. What will be India’s role in multilateral bodies like BRICS, Quad and Shanghai Cooperation Council? When it comes to diplomacy, it’s a cruel world that kills you with a smile.

Among many things, this exposes India’s medical education muddle. Some 20,000 Indians studying medicine in Ukraine needed to be evacuated. As one of them succinctly put it, a Ukrainian medical degree is accepted all over Europe. Saying this is not to rubbish the students whose families spend hard-earned money, but much less than what is needed for an Indian degree. The truth is there are too many wannabe doctors chasing too few seats. And these seats come with ‘donations’ collected by politicians who own these colleges.

Foreign policy, save Pakistan that most governments have exploited for political and electoral gains, has always been peripheral to India’s politics. Considering that, a semblance of consensus has evolved on the Ukraine crisis.

The Congress distanced itself from two of its stalwarts, Shashi Tharoor and Manish Tiwari who questioned India’s posture at the UN. It does not wish to be seen as taking sides. A generally combative Mamata Banerjee has extended “unconditional support” to the Modi Government. The Left parties, who would have normally condemned the ‘imperialist’ US/West, are silent. But surely, everybody will respond after the outcome of the state assembly polls, especially in Uttar Pradesh, gets known.

The writer can be reached at mahendraved07@gmail.com

Ukraine, Uncertain Fallouts

From public statements by both the USA and UK, it appears they are keen to see the conflict between Russia and Ukraine blowing into a war. The war will not only cause economic damage to Russia but could also affect its power. On the other hand, Europe, that has quite a lot to lose in this conflict next door, is keen to find diplomatic solutions. Ukraine itself has been playing down the prospect of war, but preparing for one. For India it seems this is a long way off, or is it?

A war is already on. It may not be a physical war, but it is a mental war. It appears that Russia wants to wear down Ukraine, make it nervous, push it towards economic crises, open up divisions and show it that no western country will physically come to its aid. Russia has enough oil and gas to stay where it is for a few more months. Ukraine on the other hand may have problems if pushed into a long blockade. However Russia may also be coordinating its move with China.

Russia has embarked on 10 days of ‘military exercises’ with Belarus. Enough time to prepare a war with its partner as ally. These will end on 20th February. That is also the day the Winter Olympics end in China. It may be coincidence or a strategic alignment of interests and potential actions. Western countries think Russia will avoid waging a war during the Olympics.

It is also evident from the last two decades of conflicts that the United States and its allies at NATO cannot manage two conflicts concurrently. In fact even a single protracted war seems to drain a lot out of them, financially, physically and in their internal unity. It is quite possible that while UK and US are cajoling Putin to play his card, with statements such as no one knows when Putin may act, or making statements that it could be any minute, both Putin and Xi may be considering a multi-regional war on at least two fronts.

There seems to be some coordination of strategy between Russia and China. Both leaders have made statement of solidarity with each other. Both countries are engaged in meetings at several levels including military Chiefs. Clearly there is something on the agenda other than talking Ukraine and NATO. The two are not best of friends, but are united by their common perception of threat from the United States and NATO to their own security interests.

The United States has been overtly threatening China and to Russia. In the Pacific Ocean, it has formed a ring of allies called AUKUS, to form an offensive coalition against China, should the need arise. Currently its focus is to signal to China to keep off Taiwan. On Russia’s western border, the USA has been actively setting up bases in East European countries and has been supporting the Ukraine leadership even before this conflict. Russia suspects that the USA engineered the recent unsuccessful uprising in Belarus.

Meanwhile China is eyeing parts of Kashmir to ensure its Chinese- Pakistan Economic Corridor can safely go through into Pakistan. India has kept away from the Silk Road project and the CPEC, often criticising it. The USA sees the Silk Road project a threat to its financial hegemony.  

China sees India as a potential military threat to CPEC and a front line offensive partner for United States in American strategy to contain China. China is thought to have designs on creating a wide enough buffer corridor in Kashmir both for defence and to protect CPEC.

If China’s regional policy is influenced by its economic interest to secure a corridor to the Indian ocean, the Russian Government is driven by vision of a Russian-Slavic civilisation separate from Western European and Anglo Saxon civilisations. It wants to create a Russian-Slav power base, hence its interest in Ukraine.

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Russia may indeed wait until after the Olympics to make its substantive move. Increasingly it is becoming obvious that while US and UK are making all sort of threats, they have no intention of sending forces to assist Ukraine. By the 20th February Ukraine may be worn out, shaken and feeling alone against the Russian giant. It may undergo an internal coup or its Government may decide that it is more secure by giving Russia a guarantee that it will accept the terms of Minsk agreement as interpreted by Russia and not join NATO.

However if Russia does attack Ukraine, it is likely to coordinate its attack with China and embark on the invasion when China is ready to move either on Kashmir or Taiwan.

The USA cannot commit forces and resources to Ukraine and concurrently to AUKUS to save Taiwan and at the same time offer support to India to help defend against a Chinese incursion into Kashmir.

NATO and USA may be left standing by as quick and swift moves by both Russia and China change the maps in coordinated moves. Generally it is thought that China may decide to invade Taiwan. However China is more likely to bag Taiwan without a fight in the future. With a key ally in Pakistan and a significant population in Kashmir hostile to the Indian Government, invading Kashmir will be easier and more opportune. The USA support for India is likely amount to megaphone statements and some punitive sanctions.

History has shown as recent as Afghanistan that the USA does not value friendships. It only has time for strategic partners when they benefit its interests. And when the advantage is not there, it also walks away irrespective of the mess left behind.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is also likely to be a swift one. Experts are warning that Russia will be drawn into a long war and a persistent insurgency if it does take over Ukraine. Parallels are drawn with Afghanistan and Middle East wars. However there is a difference. Both Afghanistan and Iraq were occupations of a culturally different and culturally hostile terrain. Ukraine on the other hand is almost 40% Russian. They are more likely to accept a change of power and move on with their lives.

Hence both a Russian invasion of Ukraine and a Chinese invasion of Kashmir are likely to be short and decisive wars that will change the balance of power to some extent.

Therefore Ukraine as a land mass may appear to be far away for India to worry, but Ukraine as a pawn in the geopolitical games of Big Powers is on the door step.

The current Indian Government doesn’t get along with its neighbours. Internally it has created enough enemies within with its hardline Hindutva project. The country isn’t all that united and cohesive as it might like to think. Annexation of land in Kashmir by China could work in favour of the BJP to bolster nationalist fervour. However it could also work against it, if a deft opposition emerges attacking its confrontationist policies in the region.

India’s defence and international strategist have a lot to think about and a lot to prepare for. The fall out of a war in Ukraine is likely to reach the borders of India. Ukraine is far but also so near.