Job Creation Archives - Lokmarg

Job Creation Is Modi’s Biggest Challenge

Job Creation Will Remain Narendra Modi’s Biggest Challenge

By Sanjoy Narayan 7th July 2024

One of the recurring refrains in Narendra Modi’s campaign speeches before the elections this year was about how during his past two terms, India grew to become the fifth largest economy in the world after the US, China, Japan, and Germany; and of how, if he won a third term, he would revolve to make it the third largest. The other vision he spoke of was Viksit Bharat 2047, a goal of making India a developed economy by 2047.

After becoming Prime Minister for the third time last month, he has repeated those themes. Last week, speaking in the Rajya Sabha during the motion of thanks following the President’s address, Modi said: “Our economy has moved from the 10th position in the world to the fifth spot and we have now got the mandate to make India the third largest economy.” Once India became the third-largest economy, the Prime Minister said, it would have an impact

Not only domestically but also on the global level, and he re-emphasised his resolve to make India a developed and self-reliant economy.

Given the rate at which India is growing–official figures show that it clocked a rate of 8.2% in the financial year 2023-24–becoming the third largest economy by overtaking Germany and Japan would likely become a reality in the not-so-distant future. What is not certain, however, is what the impact of that sort of growth will be for the average Indian.

Inflation, Unemployment & Poverty Persist

In recent years, India’s economy has grown at rates higher than any other large economy in the world. That is no mean achievement for a nearly $4-trillion economy. Yet, the impact of that sort of growth even as it has dramatically improved its position on the global pecking order seems to have meant little for its people. A post-poll survey done by the Delhi-based think tank, the Centre for Study of Development Studies (CSDS) found that the three biggest complaints by voters were inflation (listed by 24% of respondents); growing unemployment (23%); and increasing poverty (11%).

India’s growth has been lopsided. While aggregate GDP has grown impressively, employment generation in the organised sector has not kept pace; and, partly as a consequence, inequality has grown, resulting in the persistence of poverty among millions of Indians even as the number of dollar billionaires in India has soared to 200.

ALSO READ: Why Modi 3.0 Won’t Implode, But I.N.D.I.A. Might

The contrast is jarring. There are fabulously rich Indians who frequently hit the headlines with their splashy lifestyles. The London Times recently wrote about how a cruise ship packed with 800 revellers celebrating an opulent pre-wedding party of a scion of one of India’s richest families stirred complaints from residents of an Italian port city when music from its blaring loudspeakers disturbed the peace into the wee hours of the morning.

On the other hand, there are millions of Indians who could fall into abject poverty without the free food rations, subsidies for cooking gas, and schemes that guarantee 100 days work for rural workers. These are at best band-aid solutions and not sustained or assured jobs.

Lack of organised sector jobs

Of an estimated 570 million people who make up the Indian workforce, more than 80% (some estimates suggest it could be 90%) make their living in the unorganised or informal sector, most of them in the rural areas. In the informal sector, jobs lack formal contracts, benefits such as paid leave, or even minimum wages. These informal jobs could be activities such as street vending, home-based micro-businesses, shop workers, domestic servants, etc. In fact, having a job in the informal sector could be akin to being jobless.

One of the reasons for the BJP’s poor showing in this year’s election may have been deep disillusionment with the poor quality of life that millions of Indians have to suffer. Promises of making India the third largest economy in the world, or of making it a developed country by 2047 can ring hollow for millions of people who have to depend on free food rations and subsidies to be able to barely sustain their lives.

Job Creation: A Persistent Challenge

Employment generation has been a persistent challenge in India because of a complex interplay of factors. First, there is what you could call a demographic dividend mismatch. India has a large, young population entering the workforce each year (estimates vary from 5 to 10 million) but job creation hasn’t kept pace with this growth.

Second, there is often also a mismatch between the skills possessed by job seekers and those required by employers, particularly in emerging sectors. Third, while enrollment rates in educational institutions have improved, the quality of education often doesn’t adequately prepare graduates for the job market.

Also, India’s GDP growth has come mainly from the services sector, which generates less employment than manufacturing. Unlike some other developing countries, India hasn’t seen a massive expansion in labor-intensive manufacturing to absorb its growing workforce. Moreover, increasing automation in various sectors has reduced the need for low-skilled workers in some industries. While these are the most important factors limiting job growth, there are other reasons too such as regional disparities, infrastructure constraints and so on that make it a challenging problem.

All Eyes On the Next Budget

In a few weeks, India’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the first Budget of the Modi government’s third term. While many will look for what incentives it has for spurring investment and sustaining the high growth rate, all eyes will be on what steps the government takes to encourage employment generation.

The task is a complex one. India has to enhance and improve the quality of its vocational training programmes and align educational curricula with what is needed by industry whose involvement in the training programmes could be crucial.

India may have the disadvantage of being a late-starter but boosting manufacturing in some sectors by attracting more foreign investment, developing more special tax-incentivised zones, and supporting small and medium enterprises could help. Encouragement of labour-intensive sectors, and a renewed focus on agricultural productivity would also be needed.

To be sure, many of these measures have been tried in the past. For instance, the Modi government introduced the Make In India scheme, which offered incentives to invest in manufacturing, but the results have not been impressive.

The challenge of job creation is a complex and difficult one but without jobs and a tangible improvement in the lives of the average citizen, lofty goals such as Viksit Bharat or becoming the third largest economy could become cruel jokes made at the expense of millions of Indians in the world’s most populous nation.

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Modi 3.0 Must Move Beyond Temple and Statues

‘Modi 3.0 Must Move Beyond Temple, Statues and Vistas’

By LokMarg 25th June 2024

Kashish, an aspiring journalist, says Ram Temple or new grand structures will not generate employment for the teeming jobless millions. Her views:

No matter how much our current government is speaking about its glorious work – that it has increased the respect and dignity of India abroad – only ‘us’ know the real condition of our country. In this ‘us’, I am including the people who are hustling for a good job, a good income and a good life. This includes the vast majority of the poor. Yes, I am talking about the youth who are unemployed, even after acquiring the best of educational qualification.

In a recent study, it is revealed that many highly qualified people are filling forms for government jobs like peons, helpers, cleaners, and other low-level posts. This tells us the state of mass unemployment in contemporary India.

Rising joblessness and inflation are the reasons behind this terrible state of affairs. And the main point of concern is that the Indian government is refusing to do anything!

People in India are stuck between the private and government sectors. In the private sector, there are long working hours, less payouts terrible working conditions, and no job-security. Government jobs are like lucky draw coupons – there are too many aspirants and very few jobs!

ALSO READ: ‘Govt Focus is on Bullet Trains, Not Passenger Safety’

Hence, there is huge competition in the face of low vacancies. Youngsters like me are afraid and depressed due to this rise and rise of unemployment stalking the nation.

Inflation is on the rise making the survival of the middle class and poor difficult. The saddest part is that our government never wants to talk about unemployment, inflation and other crucial issues; its favourite subject seems to be solely religion, and nothing else.

Tell me, where are the ‘acche din’ as promised by the prime minister of India?

***Kashish yearns for an equitable society shorn of differences and discord***

Take the NEET paper leak case. The exam involved the emotions and mental health of thousands of students. The sleepless nights and early mornings, bereft of all joys of ordinary life and youth, merely to prepare for an exam on which their future depended. Most of these students come from humble backgrounds; some of them from below the poverty line. For them, it becomes well-nigh impossible to prepare again and again for the same exam, because they have to look for work to sustain their families.

One of my friends secured 670 marks in the exam. He is now in serious depression, because he will not get admission into a ‘dream college’. Who will help him now? When doctors or other professionals make a serious mistake, they are fired! Why should the officers of NTA be not held accountable?

As a journalism student, I can only hope for an honest investigation. The multi-million Ram temple at Ayodha, massive statues and cricket stadiums costing millions, don’t mean anything to us, or, the poor. As young citizens, we do not aspire for these things. We yearn for a peaceful, harmonious and developed society, with no income gap between the rich and poor; a society which supports the poorest of the poor.

Tragically, this seems much too difficult in the Modi era!

The PM’s sole purpose in life seems to promote Hindutva – is he not the prime minister of a secular and pluralist country? Is religion not a private affair? Is it not his duty to treat every religion equally?

He is only promoting temples, statues, stadiums and a new Parliament. How does this help the young? We need a development model which serves the poor and ordinary folks. Tell me, will the Ram Mandir provide jobs and security to the millions? The answer is: No!

(The narrator is studying print, digital and television media at the Jagran Institute of Management and Mass Communication (JIMMC), Noida)

Population Paradox: A Time Bomb Or Surplus Resource

By Zoha Ather 28th April 2023

The United Nations has projected that in April 2023, India will be overtaking China as the World’s most populated country. India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and consequently surpassing the population of mainland China. Should this be a matter of cheer or concern? Will Indian leadership be able to handle or harness such large numbers to its advantage or detriment? Will this be a constraint on our limited natural reserves or a productive workforce? These are the major issues that need to be debated and discussed at public forums.

The population size of a country is indeed an important factor for its government to consider, particularly in terms of providing employment opportunities and fostering economic growth. It is crucial for any government, including the Indian state, to address the needs and aspirations of its youth population.

India’s unemployment rate has gone up from 7.8 per cent in March 2023 to 8.11 in April 2023. The unemployment rate has been on an upward trajectory since the start of the year, recording an increase for the 4th consecutive month. Rising unemployment and loss of jobs lead to frustration and discontent among young people, at times leading to violent protests and anarchy. If there are limited avenues for employment or entrepreneurship, it can create challenges in terms of social stability and economic development.

Today, India’s status as the most populous country brings both opportunities and challenges. One of the major concerns for the government is the potential consequences of high unemployment with rapidly growing population. To mitigate these concerns, the state must focus on implementing policies that promote job creation, skill development, and entrepreneurship. This involves initiatives fostering a favorable business environment, encouraging innovation, providing easy access to seed capital, improving infrastructure, and investing in education and vocational training programs.

ALSO READ: ‘Measures To Control Population Must Be Holistic’

To ensure social stability and sustainable economic growth, it is crucial to address this issue proactively. Drawing insights from expert opinions, this piece outlines potential solutions to tackle youth unemployment and foster entrepreneurship in India.

Promoting Skill Development: Enhancing the employability of youth requires a focus on skill development. The government should collaborate with industry stakeholders to identify in-demand skills and design vocational training programs aligned with market needs. Strengthening technical education and introducing apprenticeship programs can bridge the gap between education and industry requirements.

Encouraging Entrepreneurship: Creating a conducive environment for startups is vital. Simplifying regulatory frameworks, reducing bureaucratic hurdles, and streamlining processes for starting and scaling businesses can attract more entrepreneurs. Offering tax incentives, grants, and access to funding can also encourage risk-taking and innovation.

Investing in Education: A strong educational foundation is essential to equip the youth with skills and knowledge needed for a future workforce. The government should prioritize improving the quality of primary and secondary education, focusing on holistic development, critical thinking, and problem-solving abilities. Additionally, promoting research and development in universities can foster innovation and entrepreneurship.

Strengthening Infrastructure: Infrastructure development plays a vital role in creating a business-friendly atmosphere and, resultantly, in creation of jobs. The government should prioritize sectors like construction, transportation, and renewable energy, which have the potential to generate a significant number of jobs. Strategic planning and public-private partnerships can expedite infrastructure projects, thereby boosting employment opportunities.

Encouraging Foreign Direct Investment: Attracting FDI can spur economic growth and job creation. The government should work on improving the ease of doing business by implementing transparent policies, simplifying regulations, and addressing concerns related to intellectual property rights. FDI can bring technology transfer, market access, and employment opportunities, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing and technology.

Strengthening Rural Economy: A significant portion of India’s population resides in rural areas. Thus, empowering the rural economy is essential for an inclusive growth. Encouraging agricultural entrepreneurship, promoting agro-related industries, and investing in rural infrastructure such as warehousing, digitization of foodgrain stocks and creating groups that add value to horticulture can create employment opportunities and reduce migration to urban areas. New technologies that help better crop yield and promotion of cash crops as well as setting up commodity exchanges should go a long way in increasing the income of rural households.

Digital Literacy: Digital literacy is increasingly becoming a prerequisite for employment and entrepreneurship. Expanding access to affordable internet connectivity and providing digital skills training can empower youth to participate in the digital economy. This includes imparting knowledge of digital tools, e-commerce platforms, and online marketing techniques.

The Indian government has been taking steps to address the issue of unemployment and promote entrepreneurship through initiatives like “Make in India”, “Skill India,” and “Startup India.” These programs aim to encourage investment, skill development, and the growth of startups in various sectors.

However, tackling unemployment and providing ample opportunities for a growing population is a complex challenge that requires sustained efforts and comprehensive policies. Governments need to continuously evaluate and adapt their strategies to ensure the effective utilization of human capital and create an environment that fosters innovation, job creation, and entrepreneurship.

Addressing youth unemployment and fostering entrepreneurship require a comprehensive and multi-faceted approach. The Indian government should prioritize skill development, entrepreneurship promotion, education, infrastructure development, FDI, rural empowerment, and digital literacy. By implementing these solutions, India can create a thriving ecosystem that empowers its youth, reduces unemployment, and sets the stage for sustainable economic growth in the years to come.

It’s worth noting that while population size is a factor, it’s not the sole determinant of a country’s success or failure. It is important for governments to adopt a holistic approach that considers various factors such as education, healthcare, infrastructure, governance, and economic policies to create a conducive environment for the well-being and growth of their citizens.

India’s Job Creation Challenge

By Kunal Bose 11th January 2022

What are the major concerns of Indians today? According to the December issue of Ipsos, the global market research and public opinion specialist, the three burning headaches of urban Indians are unemployment (41%), financial and political corruption (29%) and coronavirus (29%). These are followed by urban Indian worries about crime and violence (25%) and poverty and social inequality (25%). India is one of the 26 countries that feature in Ispos periodic review of citizens’ perception as to whether the things are moving in the “right direction” or “are they off on the wrong track?”

One can always make an issue of the quality and breadth of the survey sample size and how good are interviewers in engaging interviewees in discussions. Whatever that may be, this work of Ispos has won global recognition and there should be no hesitation in accepting that urban unemployment is hitting growing numbers of people across the country as the third Covid-19 wave in the form of mutant Omicron spreads fast. The curse of people going without work and therefore, drying up of their income is being increasingly manifest in rural areas too.

The job data report by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) saying unemployment rate in the country touched a four-month high of 7.91% in December comes as confirmation of popular concern of lack of employment opportunities. It will be poor consolation to say that the country had experienced an unemployment rate of 8.3% in August.

According to CMIE, the urban unemployment rate in December rose to 9.30% from 8.21% in the previous month. In rural areas, unemployment rate during the period was up from 6.44% to 7.28%. Remember people living in rural areas constitute close to 70% of the country’s population. This should give an idea of hardships of rural people without ownership of land. CMIE report says new jobs were created in December, but these were far less than people joining the ranks of jobseekers.

“Around 8.3 million additional people were looking for jobs. However, 4 million jobseekers got employment,” says CMIE managing director & CEO Mahesh Vyas. What is happening on the employment front is not surprising against the background of muted economic activity and consumer sentiment downed by Omicron. From an ill-advised demonetisation that badly hit the informal sector and a fairly large part of building construction activities across the country to clumsy rollout of GST, a number of policies were found to be anti-job growth.

State Bank of India says in a recent report that progress of formalisation of the economy has seen the share of informal sector in GDP falling from 52% in 2017-18 to 15-20% in 2020-21.The report has found that ₹130 million crore has come under the formal economy in the last few years. Formalisation is to be welcomed, for it brings increases in output and turnover by firms, which are liable to pay taxes. Cash intensity of the economy will continue to diminish as the government continues to give thrust to cashless transactions, promote digital payments and kisan credit cards and transfer of all kinds of cash benefits to beneficiary bank accounts.

ALSO READ: Covid Has Deepened India’s Poverty Pit

While all that is good for the economy, the question remains as to what extent job losses in the informal sector have been made good by creation of new jobs in the formal sector. Precise figures are not available. But one can easily guess the privation of people who became redundant in the process of emasculation of informal sector gaining pace since the breakout of Covid-19. No wonder more and more faces of jobless Indians stand frazzled.

The unemployment situation being so critical, New Delhi is pushing profit-making public sector undertakings to take up major capital expenditure programme along with green signalling construction of new highways and other infrastructure projects. At the same time, the banks are encouraged to fund private sector greenfield projects and also its expansion at present operating sites. Infra work is always employment intensive, though not of permanent kind. At the same time, because of high levels of automation and digitisation, investments in manufacturing industries are now generating lesser number of jobs than before.

Let’s consider the ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel (AMNS) announcement to build a massive 24 million tonne (mt) steel plant in Kendrapara district of Orissa (since renamed Odisha) at an investment of over ₹10 million crore. The joint venture company will run the plant permanently employing only 16,000 people. No doubt, the proposed steel plant will create significant indirect employment opportunities several times bigger than direct employment in the mother plant through ancillary and downstream industries and services. But compare the direct employment to be created by AMNS investment at Kendrapara with Tata Steel’s 31,189 people on roll (2020-21 annual report figure). The more than a century old Tata Steel has capacity of 19.6 mt at its three mills at Jamshedpur and Odisha.

Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik is aware that the state’s rich endowments of mineral resources, including iron ore, coal, chromite manganese ore and bauxite must not only be used to make primary metals such as steel and aluminium but these must be further value added within the state to generate employment for the local people and revenue for his government. That is why at the prodding of Patnaik, the National Aluminium Company and Vedanta Aluminium are building aluminium parks adjacent to their smelters where small and medium units will get liquid metal to make value added aluminium products.

Vedanta Aluminium CEO Rahul Sharma says his company promoted aluminium park will bring in “investment of at least ₹2,000 crore, create an annual incremental economic value of ₹4,500 crore for the state and generate livelihood for more than 10,000 people.” Steel mills and aluminium refineries and smelters in Odisha are found in areas where tribal population is in majority. Ancillaries linked to mother plants and downstream units for value addition to primary metals create many jobs but they need skilled hands. Here the state – in this case Odisha – will have to build institutions in concerned districts to impart skills to tribal and people belonging to Scheduled Castes and Tribes to be ready to work in factories.

India’s rapidly expanding information technology sector, fintech, which is inviting considerable support from venture capitalists and start-ups mounted on IT are the exceptions where supply of human resources are to fall short of growing requirements for at least the next five years. The country’s largest staffing solutions provider Teamlease says fulltime employee attrition in the technology industry will rise to 22% by March 2022 when attrition in contract staffing will be 49%. Shortages of IT and engineering human resources leading to high rates of job hopping are a global phenomenon that is not going to go away any day soon. At the same time, the problem is manifest more in India and other sourcing countries than destination places such as the US and Europe. In their desperation to retain talents, many Indian employers in IT and e-commerce industries are increasingly resorting to the practice of making better offers to people who have served notice to quit. The practice, however, in many cases is proving counterproductive. With counteroffers in hand, the ones having decided to leave in any case get a handle to strike a better deal with new employers.

The counteroffers could result in demoralisation of performers who are not looking for greener pastures. The competitive bidding game is a no-win practice. Shortages of human resources in the specialised niche sectors call for colleges, universities and IITs to raise capacity to produce larger number of IT experts. At the same time, the IT groups and manufacturing companies digitising their operations will have to have bigger budgets for employee up-skilling.

NYAY – ‘Create Jobs, Avoid Freebies'

By LokMarg Publishing 12th April 2019

I lived and worked for almost four years in the United Kingdom and came back in 2015. In these few years, I have been able to observe how both the countries help their poor. Unlike the UK, India took a long time to cope with the after-effects of colonization. As a result, both socially and financially, India remains backwards. However, now it is time to put an end to this, and that can be brought about only through a change in mindset.

In case of populist schemes like Congress’ Nyuntam Aay (NYAY), I feel they are a way of giving handouts to people, which in turn, makes them lazy. India has a huge population of beggars, who would remain beggars and will have no motivation to work if they get money from the government. Thus, I don’t have high hopes from the as of now.

ALSO READ: Easy Money Makes People Lazy

The people who could benefit from such a scheme are the ones who work in India’s unorganised sector. Demonetization dealt a severe blow to these people and rendered them jobless. But I guess they won’t be covered under the NYAY scheme as they don’t belong to the poorest 20% of the population. Rahul Gandhi should look at addressing the problem of the unorganised sector as a whole. I have heard that he has talked about filling up 22 lakh government job vacancies within a year, if voted to power.

Social security schemes for all sections of society in the UK are well-structured and India can learn a lot from it. However, I have seen many people turn lazy in the UK because the government supports them so well. We Indians generally don’t follow discipline, for e.g. standing in lines, but when it comes to freebies, ‘mamla air bigad jata hai aur log uspe toot padte hain’ (things get worse and people will go up to any extent to avail them). We need a social change where people understand that the government is there to help you only after you have tried to help yourself — himmat-e-mard madadan khuda (God helps those who help themselves).

Whichever government comes to power, it must think about job creation and addressing unemployment. Women are more financially astute and they should more involved in such policy that would require large sums of money to be taken out from the exchequer.

The BJP government had also launched the PM-KISAN Samman Nidhi Scheme, which gives ₹2,000 every quarter to farmers owning agricultural land of less than two hectares. This is quite low in comparison to ₹6,000 per month, but BJP knows how to advertise its schemes better, while Congress/Opposition doesn’t.

I also read that NYAY is expected to cost the exchequer ₹3.6 trillion or around 1.7% of the forecasted gross domestic product (GDP) for 2019-20. However, former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has said that the cost will never cross 2% of the GDP.

To put less burden on taxpayers, Congress is thinking about doing away with some subsidies as well as sharing the cost with state governments. Let’s see if it works, though I don’t have high hopes.

Last time if I had got the chance to vote (because I was in the UK then) I would have voted for the BJP. However, this time despite seeing the tremendous infrastructural development around me, I am still to make up my mind whether to vote for it or not.

I am doing a lot of research before casting my precious vote and taking note of all facts and figures related to socio-economic development. Our city, Bhopal is known for communal harmony, but BJP is known for its divisive tactics and that is disturbing. I have seen people from all cultures coexisting peacefully during my stint in the UK and we need to bring back the thought of ‘unity in diversity’ in the mainstream to be happy as a country.

Is It Advantage Modi Before The Elections Begin?

By Sanjoy Narayan 2nd April 2019

Even before the first vote is cast, and campaigning reaches its crescendo, Modi is probably entering the fray with an advantage.

A few days ago, one of India’s most respected and well-known senior TV journalists posted a tweet that was telling. She was reporting from the field in Baghpat in Uttar Pradesh and her tweet said: “A commonly described refrain about @narendramodi–not Pulwama, Balakot, or PM Kisan–is “he works really hard and he isn’t gaining anything for himself” – talking to voters in Baghpat. #OnTheRoad2019”. India’s national elections are less than a fortnight away and, increasingly, the views gleaned from the ground seem to point to a public mood that favours re-electing Mr Narendra Modi, his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and its several allies.

Dipstick surveys of the sort that journalists often resort to—talking to local cab drivers or roadside tea stall owners is one of the commonest tactics they use—are neither rigorous nor scientific ways of gauging the pre-election mood of an electorate, at least not of one that is as diverse, complex, and confounding as that of India’s. Yet, as we head for this year’s national elections (they begin on April 11 and go on for seven phases), what people outside the high-decibel chatter on social media platforms are saying bears consideration. Mr Modi and his government appear to elicit greater levels of faith among large swathes of India’s population. So, are they headed towards an election with a definite edge over their opponents such as the Congress party or the motley crew of other parties that have been trying to forge a grand alliance to oust the BJP-led government?

When it comes to campaigning for votes Mr Modi has a clear edge over his rivals. Whatever critics say, he’s probably the best orator in Indian politics today. His speeches may be peppered with “politically incorrect” statements (recently, while speaking to students at an IIT, he appeared to be mocking Congress president Rahul Gandhi as someone suffering from dyslexia), or repetitive homilies about how his government had delivered on what it had promised, or even inaccurate accounts of things such as India’s growth, employment generation, and poverty alleviation during his regime, but his oratorical skills are clearly a huge draw among ordinary Indians who usually come out in strength to listen to him at his numerous rallies. The average Indian sees Mr Modi as a strong, hardworking leader who is honest and selfless.

A gifted speaker, Mr Modi’s rally speeches are designed to touch the heart of his audiences. He speaks to them in simple language, although he has a penchant for coining acronyms, and is usually able to create a feeling of respect, admiration and trust among them. Through his tenure, he has leveraged this talent. His monthly radio talk, Mann ki Baat, which partly crowd sources its themes, and has a potential to reach 90% of Indians, is a huge hit. He has nearly 47 million followers on Twitter and has posted more than 22,800 tweets (Donald Trump has 59.5 million and 41,000 tweets) and even though he’s faced flak for not holding a single press conference since he became Prime Minister in 2014, his alternative way of keeping in contact with people seems to have borne fruit. No one except the media complains about the PM not holding pressers.

In several polls, confidence trackers and other devices of that ilk, Mr Modi continues to be head and shoulders ahead of his rival politicians when it comes to who most people would prefer to see as the leader of their nation. In contrast, the Congress president and Mr Modi’s main rival, Mr Gandhi, is still seen as a work in progress. That may seem amusing because at 48, Mr Gandhi may be a generation younger than Mr Modi, 68, but he’s already a middle-aged man. Mr Gandhi’s election speeches are also not remarkable. He’s not as good a public speaker. But more importantly, his speeches lack the conviction that Modi’s speeches invariably seem to have. Also, during this election season, other than the announcement of a form of universal basic income for the poorest in India, in his public utterances, there has been little of his vision for a better India.

Mr Gandhi’s party just released its manifesto for the elections, spelling out what it would do if it came to power. It was no surprise that it promised a thorough investigation into the Modi government’s deal to buy Rafale fighter jets from France—a deal that the Congress and others believe smacks of corruption. But its main focus was on creating jobs; alleviating distress among India’s farmers; and, naturally, the minimum income scheme that Mr Gandhi had announced earlier, and in which Rs 72,000 a year would be paid to the poorest 20% of households.

The BJP is yet to release its manifesto—before the last election in 2014, it had done so only very late into the campaigning period. But it would be a real surprise if that document didn’t prioritise the exact same things that the Congress’s one has. The Modi government has been perceived to be tardy on issues such as employment generation and well-being of farmers. Political prudence would dictate that these issues would feature high up on the BJP’s manifesto as well. India’s problems—particularly on the economic development front are complex and so large that no aspirant for New Delhi’s seat of power can ignore them, least of all an aspirant wanting to be re-elected.

The outcome of India’s elections—they are complex and involve various permutations and factors that influence voters’ choices—are never predictable. The size and scale of itself is massive: 820 million voters; 930,000 polling stations; 1.4 million electronic voting machines; 11 million security personnel overseeing polling over seven phases. But so is the unpredictability of the voting trends. How a party fares in populous states such as Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh (now bifurcated into two separate states), and Maharashtra could be the determinant of whether it gets a shy at forming the government. Moreover, votes are cast on the basis of many other factors that go beyond economics and the personalities of leaders. Caste and religion create blocs of voters; and India’s population of 172 million Muslims who are its largest minority have not exactly been happy in the past five years under a government led by a party whose policies have always had Hindu nationalism at its core. Recently, at one of his rallies, while upbraiding the Congress for creating the term “Hindu terror”, Mr Modi implied Mr Gandhi was contesting from an additional Muslim-dominated constituency because he was afraid of losing from his regular constituency, UP’s Amethi. In 2014, when the BJP and its allies won 336 seats out of 543 in India’s lower house of Parliament, few psephologists had been able to predict that it would be such an overwhelming win. One reason why India’s pre-poll surveys often go horribly wrong is because of the diversity and sheer size of the electorate—huge numbers of voters; and a vastly diverse population, both in terms of demographics and psychographics. In a country of 1.3 billion, sometimes the biggest sample size you can manage to poll is quite often just not big enough. Yet, even before the first vote is cast, and election campaigning reaches its crescendo, it may not be wrong to say that Mr Modi is probably entering the fray with an advantage.

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#WhereAreTheJobs – ‘Job Market Is Pathetic’

By LokMarg Publishing 21st February 2019

I work as a journalist with Radio Dwarka (www.radiodwarka.com), India’s first online Community Radio, an initiative by a group of old media hands in Delhi. According to Wikipedia, community radio stations are operated, owned, and influenced by the communities they serve. They provide a mechanism for enabling individuals, groups, and communities to tell their own stories, to share experiences and, in a media-rich world, to become creators and contributors of media. In short, it is a mini democracy in action, a media service of the people, for the people and by the people.

As a reporter I try to get an in-depth understanding of issues. I have been able to look at people’s confusions, aspirations and fears from close quarters. And in my opinion, our country is in urgent need of a Universal Basic Income. The employment situation doesn’t look that bright to me.

There are various schemes that have been introduced by the current government to skill people and generate employment. The government’s social media machinery has done a good job publicising these schemes. Youngsters from privileged backgrounds, who probably do not need to avail benefits of government schemes want to participate as volunteers wherever possible. However, the schemes should reach the people from the back of beyond, who really need them the most.

Perhaps the most talked about business loan scheme is the ‘MSME Business Loans in 59 Minutes’. Financial assistance of upto Rs 1 crore is given to micro, small and medium enterprises that form the backbone of any economy. MSMEs contribute to around 40 percent of the GDP. A time frame of 8-12 days is taken to verify the credentials of the business, but the actual approval or disapproval is given in 59 minutes flat. It saves one from so much stress.

Some day, I would like to start my own initiative –a community radio for my hometown, Gaya. Gaya has numerous stories in its bag apart from the Mahabodhi temple. The world needs to know about us. I keep updating myself about the various ways in which the government is aiding people, who want to work towards their own businesses.

As about voting in the last elections, yes I had voted for the BJP and my vote will again go to the same party.