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Propaganda War: Ukraine Through Facts & Fictions

By Jasdev Singh Rai 3rd January 2023

News media like to put out that they are objective, balanced, unbiased and free from interference. This is particularly claimed by liberal left leaning press in the West and some State-owned media groups on both sides. But some critical evaluation of their articles and editorials exposes them to be as unabashedly propagandist as the most unapologetic biased news media. They just do it subtly as evident in the coverage of the Ukraine conflict. Through the fog of misinformation, disinformation and censorship, it is difficult to know which side to believe and which media to trust.

Within a week of the attack by Russia, the general theme in almost every western media was that Russia’s attempts to conquer Ukraine had failed and the war is proving to be longer than expected! This line was promoted in countries that unsuccessfully spent a good 20 years to ‘conquer’ Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. How a week in war translates into ‘failure’ and 20 years as ‘near success’ is a logic that only the media can twist as fact.

Ukraine was part of the USSR and if anyone knew the number of weapons and fighting skills of Ukrainians, especially after three years of engagement in Donbas, it was the Russians. They seemed prepared for a longer war, possibly a year, given the number of troops they had assigned and the supply lines created as well as preparations for sanctions. But a lot more has been censored and disinformation is ripe on both sides.

Before the attack, some of the liberal Press in the West had also carried article and newsbriefs of Nazi type units, called Azos including in respected sites such as Bllingcat, who allegedly had infiltrated and taken over a lot of institutions in Ukraine. Since the conflict, there is almost no mention of Azos or Nazi-type groups dominating the decision making bodies in Ukraine and in fact media like BBC have been accused of whitewashing Ukrainian Azov contradicting their own previous reports.

Equally interesting is that there is very little journalist reports of Ukrainian men paying human traffickers to get out of Ukraine to escape being forced to join the defence. On the other hand, narratives of Russian men escaping Russia to dodge conscription make headlines in most western Press even when Russia lets them leave. Most Press gives the impression that the recruits in Russian Army have been forced to fight against their will while the average able bodied Ukrainian young man has rushed to the defence of motherland or fatherland. But some rare media has covered stories of Ukrainian men being forced at gunpoint to fight against their will. Why is the male human trafficking trade in Ukraine doing so well, if young men are queuing up to fight?

Take another bit of reporting. Every week, the media has reported deaths of Russian Generals, commanders etc. But no Ukrainian officer seems to have died in this 10-month old war. Amazing. It appears Ukrainian officers are invincible or simply sending the young men to slaughter while themselves staying safe in command centres in Kyiv.

Or another fact that is standing out as a sore thumb. Without evidence western commentators are pushing the line that Russia wants to revive the USSR and we are led to believe that Russia has lost this war. At the beginning, Russia spelt out its aims. It was going to ‘free’ Donbas’ and reduce Ukraine’s military capability. It has taken Donbas. It has now almost wiped out Ukraine’s arsenal. Ukraine is now dependent on weapons from the West. How long will the west ‘donate’ its own supplies?

Facts and fictions are not amiss on the other side either. Russia has been stating that this was a ‘special operation’ and not a war. Some of its media say that at end of every article. With thousands of their own soldiers dead and significant part of the enemy territory taken with daily casualties running into thousands, it is difficult to understand when a war is and when a special operation is. A Special Operation normally lasts a few weeks, is swift with very few casualties. To call this ‘special operation’ after 10 months of fighting and hundreds of thousands dead, is fictional absurdity if not denial.

Russia has claimed that it has broken the will of Ukrainians. Has it? Russian media also latches onto stories of men escaping conscription in Ukraine, suggesting Ukrainian are fighting unwillingly. Ten months later, it continues to be challenged on all fronts. Weapons alone do not win wars, unless armies are willing to fight. Ukrainians have shown true grit in the face of a formidable army. Russia is now using some brutal and indiscriminate tactics.

Russian news media also trots daily victories with few exceptions where it says that its forces have performed a tactical withdrawal. Given the number of claimed victories, Russia should have taken all of Ukraine by now. In fact, tactical retreats mean Russians have been forced out or lost in those towns. Russians who question the ‘victories’ end up silenced or in prisons. The truth is as the Government wants it, not what it is. Allegedly quite a few high-profile Russians also seem to be falling from windows especially when they have been critical of Government policy in Ukraine.

Russia goes on about de-Nazification of Ukraine. There is no evidence that the majority of Ukrainians are racists or ‘Nazi’ like. Moreover, there are plenty of extreme Right wing nationalist groups in Russia who have links with similar groups in the West.

Through the mirrors of fiction being promoted facts can be obscure but quite simple. Russia had reached an understanding with major western powers after collapse of USSR that NATO would not expand into ex-USSR countries. NATO did expand and had come close on the doors of Russia by encouraging Ukraine to join. Professor Mearsheimer’s talk is the most concise analysis of this conflict. There were also agreements about installing missiles in Ukraine. The Ukraine Army was being trained to act as a first shield against Russia. To protect itself, Russia had started insurgency in Donbas. It took Crimea in 2014 to stop its base being taken away in the Black Sea.

To convince its own side about the necessity of invasion, Russia raised the fighting in Ukraine Donbass region as ethnic cleansing of Russian speaking Slavs. It was a narrative that fired Russians. Russia also raised spectre of chemical weapons factories in Ukraine near its borders. The attack was legitimised in the eyes of ordinary Russians.

Russia prepared for a longer war with strategies to deal with sanctions and weaponization of financial institutions against it. Russia weaponised gas and oil in retaliation. Its economy has in fact grown.

ALSO READ: Ukraine War – A Diplomatic Opportunity For India

On the other side, the war is actually a proxy war for USA and the UK in an attempt to weaken Russia. The Ukrainians are victims who have been forced into a fight in support of American foreign policy. The US has a number of experts and senior army officers in Ukraine. There were chemical and bio labs even admitted by a US assistant Secretary of State as well as cautioned by WHO. It makes no sense for the US to have sent senior secret service personnel to shut down what it calls ordinary labs testing for chlamydia and strep bacteria.

Both sides are pushing propaganda narratives. The West continues to promote the narrative that Russia is losing the conflict as it failed to take Ukraine in the first week. It also promotes the narrative that Putin and his circle want to restore the USSR. Western media hardly ever mentions the agreement not to expand NATO. But some pragmatists such as Kissinger are calling for negotiations.

Russia on the other hand continues to promote the story that Ukraine has been taken over by Nazis and is an existential threat to Russia as well as trying to annihilate Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

Through all this maze of fiction on both sides when even reputable media have compromised, the only reliable analysis is to look at what has been achieved and look at social media from both sides. But freedom loving west has blocked many of Russian media as has Russia in retaliation. Truth is the first casualty of war and is being killed on both sides.

Belarus Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei passed away

Belarus FM Vladimir Makei Passes Away At 64

By LokMarg 27th November 2022

Belarus Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei passed away at the age of 64, the Foreign Ministry of the country announced on Saturday.

“The Foreign Minister of the Republic of Belarus Vladimir Makei has passed away, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus wrote on Twitter.
Details regarding the ‘sudden’ demise of the foreign minister yet remain unknown.

The president of Belarus also expressed grief over the death of Foreign Minister Makei on Saturday to the family and friends of Makei, CNN reported citing the statement published on the presidential website.

Makei was born in 1958 in Grodno Region of Belarus and graduated from the Minsk State Pedagogical Institute of Foreign Languages in 1980 and Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Austria in 1993, according to his official bio on the foreign ministry’s website.

Fluent in both German and English, Vladimir Makei took hold of the position of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus since 2012.

He held the diplomatic rank of the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary.

Prior to becoming the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Belarus, he was an assistant to the President of the Republic of Belarus from 2000-2008.

From 2008-2012, Makei was the head of the Administration of the President of the Republic of Belarus, according to his official bio on the foreign ministry’s website. (ANI)

Belarus’ Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei visited New Delhi in early November and discussed several issues including bilateral economic ties, the Ukraine conflict, and multilateral cooperation with EAM Dr. S Jaishankar.

Notably, Belarus is among the few countries, which is reportedly supporting the Russian military amid the Ukraine conflict. (ANI)

Farooq Hopes Modi Will Be Successful In Ending Russia-Ukraine War

By LokMarg 21st November 2022

National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah on Monday expressed hope that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be successful in “ending the Russia-Ukraine war” that has stretched for nearly nine months.

The NC chief stated that the war has created havoc on the global economic situation.
“I am happy that India has got the presidency of the G20 Summit. It could be that India has the burden of all these countries. And I hope that the Prime Minister will be successful in ending the Russia-Ukraine war which has created havoc on the economic condition,” Abdullah said while talking to the reporters here.

The war that started in February this year has claimed the lives of thousands of people on both sides.

Abdullah’s statement comes after the G-20 communique in Bali echoed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as it said that “Today’s era must not be of war.”

PM Modi, in his statement to Putin in a bilateral meeting on the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Samarkand in September this year, had said “now is not the time for war”, referring to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

The G 20 communique said, “It is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability. This includes defending all the Purposes and Principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and adhering to international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians and infrastructure in armed conflicts. The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue, are vital. Today’s era must not be of war.”

The NC chief further took a swipe at Union Home Minister Amit Shah over his “will talk to Kashmiri youth instead of Pakistan” remark during his rally in J-K, and said that India has a fight with Pakistan and that we will have to talk to the neighbouring country.

“The other thing is that regarding the problems that we have with our neighbour, it may be possible that the countries will find a solution to it. Home Minister says that he will talk to the youth and not Pakistan. But the fight is against Pakistan, not the children. I am tired of telling him to have talks with Pakistan. India has to talk to Pakistan at some point in time,” he said.

“There is nothing like radicalisation. We are fighting a low-intensity war. There is no other way,” Abdullah added.

The former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, talking about the elections that are due to be held in the Union Territory, said that it is up to the Election Commission and the Centre to conduct the polls.

“As far as the elections are concerned, we don’t know when they will be conducted. It is my duty to come and talk to the people and bring out their condition in front of the parliament and the Centre. It is up to the Election Commission and the government of India when to conduct the elections,” he said. (ANI)

Five Things That Happened This Week (And what to make of them)

By Sanjoy Narayan 13th November 2022

Is the Biden administration in a gridlock?

When it comes to elections, pollsters often get it all wrong. Before the US midterm elections that were held earlier this month, pre-poll surveys had predicted that there would be a huge wave in favour of the Republicans both in the Senate(upper house) and the House of Representatives (the lower house), which together make up the bicameral legislative body of the US government. On the basis of those predictions political analysts even began forecasting scenarios where the Biden administration could fall into an existential crisis that could prove to be fatal.

As it happened, the outcome of the elections was not as dramatic. In the Senate, the Republicans and Democrats are now head-to-head each with 49 seats in the 100-seat chamber; and in the House of Reps, the Republicans have 211 seats to the Democrats’ 202 of the 435 seats, which means neither party has a majority. The US is largely a bipartisan democracy so unlike in other democracies such as in India or in several European countries, coalitions and electoral alliances are not meaningful options: the Republicans and the Democrats are always rivals.

But what exactly does it mean for President Joe Biden if the country’s lawmaking body is so evenly balanced? After the results started getting announced, Biden expressed a sigh of relief that the pro-Make America Great Again (read: Donald Trump and his supporters) were not bouncing back to stymie his government. But that could have been a response that was too hasty. Because America’s government could find itself in an unenviable gridlock.

Let’s look at the scenario that has emerged. The Republicans have a majority with a slender margin over the Democrats in the House, while in the Senate, neither of the two parties has a majority. What does this imply? For one, it makes President Biden’s task of making major new policy changes through law more difficult because his Democratic party has no clout in the House. Unless the Republicans are on board, it could be difficult for him to enact laws that have major implications. At a time when the shadow of recession looms large over the global economy; and Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to spiral, hurdles to lawmaking in the US could prove to be costly.

There could also be other implications for Biden. Some analysts believe in a sort of eye-for-an-eye move, if the Republicans have an edge in the House they could call for impeachment of Biden–in a kind of retaliation for the impeachments that the Democrats initiated against Trump during his term.

Meanwhile, Trump has said that he will make a big announcement later this month and that could mean he may throw his hat in the ring for the 2024 presidential elections. Trump continues to have considerable support among Republicans and many in the party, including some who have been elected in the midterms, think the 2020 elections results were not credible and that actually it was Trump who should have been declared the winner.

Divisiveness has sharpened in the US political scene and the midterms, even if they haven’t resulted in a clear verdict, have served to sharpen them. We can expect tensions to grow between the two parties and their supporters as 2024 approaches.

How many have died in the Russian attack against Ukraine?

As the war in Ukraine continues, and details of what is happening on the ground remains shrouded in ambiguity, a US military estimate suggests that around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the nearly 10-month-old war. These figures, however, are a “western” estimate because both Moscow and Kyiv are extremely cagey about releasing official figures for casualties on their respective sides. Instead, ever since the war began last February, both sides have been contradicting each other–in terms of casualties, terrain recovered or captured, and other war-related statistics.

One slightly hopeful sign appeared last week. There were some reports that Ukraine was willing to consider negotiations with Russia for an end to the conflict. However, it is not known whether or how Russia would react to these overtures. Both countries would have to first agree that the 10-month-old war would perhaps not be resolved militarily but through diplomacy.

Speculation about the talks between the two sides grew after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky withdrew his demand that Russian President VladimirPutin should step down before any negotiations could happen.

Despite the contrary propaganda, both sides have suffered in the war but whether Putin responds to Zelensky’s overtures for talks is something that remains uncertain.

In Gujarat, it’s an AAP shadow that looms

Bombastic declarations are a part of India’s electoral politics. Before Gujarat goes to the polls in less than a month from now, such declarations are flying fast, especially from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has 109 of the 182 seats in the state. Releasing the first list of the party’s candidates last week, BJP leader and Union minister Bhupendra Yadav said his party would break all records and win 150 seats in the assembly.

The facts could be quite different. In allocating seats, the BJP, which has ruled the state for practically 27 years (with a short break in between), has denied tickets to as many as 38 sitting MLAs, an indication that it fears that voters in many constituencies might be swayed by anti-incumbency sentiments. In its first list of candidates, it has included only 69 of the sitting party legislators as contenders for the coming elections.

This could be a sign that the party is fearing stiff competition from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which won Punjab’s last elections and has been running Delhi for the past seven years.

Gujarat is a prestigious state for the BJP. Not only has it been ruling it for nearly three decades, it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state and one that he has been chief minister for more than a dozen years. Losing Gujarat and that too to AAP would be humiliating for the party. For now, all eyes are on AAP, which is clearly one of the most prominent rivals to older and bigger parties at the national level such as the BJP and the Congress.

Musk on the warpath in Twitter

After buying Twitter, sacking its top executives and as many as 3,700 employees worldwide, billionaire Elon Musk is continuing to unleash controversial decisions at the popular social media messaging platform. Twitter recently announced a subscription model for anyone who wanted a verified account (which comes with a blue tick).

More recently, Musk scrapped the platform’s work-from-home policy and declared that all employees have to come to work and do a minimum work week of 40 hours. Coming on the heels of a mass sacking, this has created further uncertainty in the company.

Meanwhile, even as Musk reached out to major advertisers in a video chat last week to assure them of his sound business plans, many big spenders have abandoned or put on hold their ad spends on the platform. These include General Motors, General Mills, and United Airlines. Many of these companies are apprehensive about the direction a Musk-owned Twitter will go with regard to hate speech and divisive content. Many of them are waiting and watching how things pan out before resuming spending on the platform.

Facebook employees face the sack

Elsewhere on the social media scene, things are not very different. Faced with declining revenues and increasing losses, Facebook has been on a firing spree. Last week, on a single day, Facebook fired 11,000 employees comprising 13% of the company’s workforce.

Many of those fired were Indians, including some who had just joined the company. In one instance, a woman employee on maternity leave till February received an email that said her job had been terminated.

Facebook’s bossMark Zuckerberg has taken responsibility for the decision to fire employees and for the company’s revenue collapse.

Meanwhile, he is betting big on Metaverse, a virtual world in which people live, work, shop and interact with others all from the comfort of their homes. Facebook’s parent company, Meta, is working to launch this. But although Zuckerberg has invested nearly $36 billion thus far on Metaverse till now, there is little to show for it yet in results.

Nuclear War Can’t Be Won, Mustn’t Be Fought: Russia

By LokMarg 2nd November 2022

Amid the escalating tensions in Ukraine, Russia on Wednesday issued a statement outlining the risks of nuclear war, saying “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.

“In implementing its policy on nuclear deterrence, Russia is strictly and consistently guided by the tenet that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. Russian doctrinal approaches in this sphere are defined with utmost accuracy, pursue solely defensive goals and do not admit of expansive interpretation,” Kremlin said in a statement on preventing nuclear war.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised concerns about the security situation at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The ZNPP site has been controlled by Russian forces since March.

Until recently, operational decisions were taken by its Ukraine staff, but Russia has announced it has taken control of the facility and is now taking those decisions. In recent months the site has been beset with power outages caused by shelling, putting nuclear safety and security at the plant at risk.

Russia said it is strongly convinced that in the current situation, “caused by irresponsible and impudent actions aimed at undermining our national security,” the most immediate task is to avoid any military clash of nuclear powers.

“We urge other states of the ‘nuclear five’ to demonstrate in practice their willingness to work on solving this top-priority task and to give up the dangerous attempts to infringe on vital interests of each other while balancing on the brink of a direct armed conflict and encouraging provocations with weapons of mass destruction, which can lead to catastrophic consequences,” it added.

In a further sign of the precarious situation in the area of the ZNPP, the IAEA team has reported there had been shelling in the vicinity of the plant in recent days, following a period of reduced military activity.

Last week, shelling near the thermal power plant switchyard temporarily disconnected one of the ZNPP’s three back-up power lines through which the town of Enerhodar has been receiving electricity.

“Operating staff at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant are working hard in very challenging circumstances to prevent the kind of repeated power outages we saw in early October,” Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the IAEA. “While their determined efforts have had some positive results, the plant’s power situation remains extremely vulnerable.”

Director General Grossi has engaged in high-level talks with both Ukraine and Russia in recent weeks aimed at agreeing and implementing a nuclear safety and security protection zone around the ZNPP as soon as possible. (ANI)

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Know What Are ‘Kamikaze’ Drones That Struck Ukraine’s Capital Kyiv

By LokMarg 17th October 2022

By Ayushi Agarwal

Waves of explosive-laden suicide drones reportedly struck Ukraine’s capital Kyiv with “Kamikaze” drones or Iranian-made loitering munitions on Monday.

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, while in conversation with ANI, explained what these drones are and if this will further escalate and intensify the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

“They are not a new type of weaponry. The technology has been around for the last 15 years, at least. It is an evolution of different weapon systems, essentially just a cruise missile.”

Before explaining what Kamikaze drones are the expert described the functionality of a cruise missile to help understand the difference between the two. The expert noted that a cruise missile is essentially an aircraft that does not return to its base, rather it carries a bomb when it destroys itself in the process, a precision-guided munition.

Drawing a comparison between these cruise missiles and Kamikaze Drones to help understand the technology, expert Abhijit said that these both are something very similar.

However, he explained that “this (Kamikaze Drone) is a shorter range that is attached to an aircraft where the pilot decides at the last minute whom to release it on or what target to release it on and then it separates from the aircraft.”

“The important thing is that it gives a last-minute determination of what the target should be. A cruise missile, you know, the target is fitting to the cruise missile at the time it is launched, whereas here (with the Kamikaze Drones) one can take a split-second decision at the last minute when it goes to.”

The other thing about the Kamikaze drones, he said is that they are a relatively cheaper option because technology is becoming cheaper and the ability to remote control has also become cheaper.

“So it is the sort of the democratization of technology if you want to call it. It’s a cheap smart option to be used. Hence, a Kamikaze drone is really no different from a cruise missile, it is just a loitering aircraft with a bombload on it and a guidance war hit on it”, he added.

When asked if this will escalate and intensify the conflict between the two countries, the expert said that it is not bringing any sort of new capacity but geopolitically, it would harden American attitude towards Iranians.

“It is not a new kind of weapon. It’s not bringing any specific new capacity except a sort of cost reduction in that sense. So it’s not going to change anything much. I think what we’ve seen is just going to continue for quite some time in the future. It is impossible to predict, but no, it doesn’t change anything in the conflict.”

Speaking further, he said that “geopolitically, the only thing it would possibly change is that it would harden American attitudes towards Iran.”

“Remember, there’s the nuclear deal that they want to renegotiate at the moment or rather bring back at the moment. Iran accepted the deal but it was Trump who canceled the deal. So, it’ll make things tougher because you look at the Americans, then they’ve alienated the Russians, they have alienated Saudis and the Emiratis and now and they are alienating the Iranian”, said the expert. (ANI)

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G7 Warns Of Severe Consequences If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons

By LokMarg 12th October 2022

A day after Russia’s large-scale missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, Group of Seven (G7) nations condemned the attacks and warned that the use of nuclear weapons on Ukraine will have severe consequences, according to a statement released by the White House.

Leaders of G7 states (the UK, Germany, Italy, Canada, the US, France, and Japan) said, “We deplore deliberate Russian escalator steps, including the partial mobilization of reservists and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, which is putting global peace and security at risk. We reaffirm that any use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons by Russia would be met with severe consequences.”
Earlier, on Monday, Russia conducted that large-scale strikes on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other locations on Monday, which drew condemnation from several countries.

The statement came after the G7 held a meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that took place against the backdrop of the recent missile attacks against civilian infrastructure and cities across Ukraine, leading to the death of innocent civilians.

Talking about Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s four regions, the G7 said that Russia has blatantly violated the principles enshrined in the UN Charter. “They cannot and do not give Russia a legitimate basis to change Ukraine’s borders. We call upon all countries to unequivocally reject these violations of international law and demand that Russia ceases all hostilities and immediately, completely, and unconditionally withdraw all of its troops and military equipment from Ukraine,” the statement said.

G7 in the statement said that they have imposed and will continue to impose further economic costs on Russia, and even on other countries who are providing political or economic support for Russia’s illegal attempts to change the status of Ukrainian territory.

“We reiterate our call on the Belarusian authorities to stop enabling the Russian war of aggression by permitting Russian armed forces to use Belarusian territory and by providing support to the Russian military. The announcement of a joint military group with Russia constitutes the most recent example of the Belarusian regime’s complicity with Russia. We renew our call on the Lukashenko regime to fully abide by its obligations under international law,” the statement said.

“We reaffirm our full support for Ukraine’s independence, territorial integrity, and sovereignty in its internationally recognized borders. In line with international law, in particular the UN Charter, Ukraine has the legitimate right to defend itself against Russian aggression and to regain full control of its territory within its internationally recognized borders,” the statement added.

G7 also said that they are looking forward to the outcomes of the International Expert Conference on the Recovery, Reconstruction, and Modernisation of Ukraine, which is taking place on October 25.

Talking about the “deliberate damage” in Nordstream pipelines, G7 said that they strongly condemn deliberate disruption of critical infrastructure.

“We will act in solidarity and close coordination to address the negative impact of Russia’s aggression for global economic stability, including by continuing to cooperate to ensure energy security and affordability across the G7 and beyond,” G7 said in the statement. (ANI)

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Ukraine Will Not Conduct Negotiations With Putin: Zelenkskyy To Modi

By LokMarg 5th October 2022

Responding to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s calls for peace, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday said that Kyiv will not conduct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

PM Modi earlier held a phone call with Zelenskyy and said that the endangerment of nuclear facilities amid the Russia-Ukraine war could lead to catastrophic consequences for the environment.
During the phone call, the Prime Minister expressed his firm conviction that there can be no military solution to the conflict and conveyed India’s readiness to contribute to any peace efforts. He again called for the cessation of hostilities and the need to pursue the path of diplomacy.

Reacting to the referendum in four Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Zelenskyy noted that all the aggressor’s decisions aimed at attempting illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories are null and void and do not change reality.

Zelenskyy emphasized that under such conditions, Ukraine will not conduct any negotiations with the current President of the Russian Federation, and noted that our state has always been committed to a peaceful settlement through dialogue, said Zelenskyy readout.

“However, Russia did not stand for dialogue and put forward ultimate instead deliberately undermining this process. During my speech at the session of the UN General Assembly, I outlined our clear formula for peace. We are ready to work together with our partners to achieve it,” added the President of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy thanked PM Modi for India’s support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and also emphasized the importance of the Indian leader’s recent statement that now is not the time for war.

During the conversation, the Ukrainian President emphasized the importance of strengthening the Ukrainian-Indian partnership against the backdrop of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Zelenskyy also noted the significant humanitarian aid provided by the government and the private sector of the Republic of India to Ukraine, added the readout.

Both leaders separately discussed the issue of global food security. Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine is ready to continue acting as a guarantor of the world’s food security. In this regard, the support of the entire international community, in particular India, for further implementing the grain initiative is important.

The interlocutors paid due attention to the issue of nuclear safety.

“Nuclear blackmail by Russia, particularly regarding the Zaporizhzhia NPP, is a threat not only to Ukraine but also to the whole world,” Zelenskyy said.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reiterated its deep concern about landmine explosions close to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). IAEA is also continuing its consultations and other efforts to agree on and implement a nuclear safety and security zone around the ZNPP as soon as possible.

The Prime Minister’s Office said Prime Minister Modi reiterated the importance of respecting the UN Charter, International Law, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states.

“Prime Minister emphasized the importance India attaches to the safety and security of nuclear installations, including in Ukraine. He underlined that endangerment of nuclear facilities could have far-reaching and catastrophic consequences for public health and the environment,” the statement said.

Separately, Zelenskyy and Modi discussed cooperation within international organizations, primarily the UN.

During the conversation, the parties noted mutual interest in deepening regular full-scale Ukrainian-Indian contacts, as well as the implementation of tasks on the agenda of bilateral relations of comprehensive partnership.

Further, Zelenskyy invited PM Modi to visit Ukraine. (ANI)

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India’s Strategic Success On Ukraine

By Jasdev Singh Rai 4th October 2022

Seven months into the Ukraine conflict, Russia has annexed much of the Donbass region and more or less achieved what it set out to do. The fall-out of this conflict is far reaching which could fundamentally change the nature of international institutions, the balance of power and the broad camps. Russia has annexed land before. This time the West decided to make a stand. Led by the United States, it attempted to impose its idea of World Order, otherwise known as Pax American. Countries like India have been caught in a very difficult situation. India does not want to be a push over or be caught on the wrong side of the flux taking place nor be tied to one camp.

Foreign Minister S Jaishankar summed up the new mood in India in its international relations when he said, “…Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.” That statement oozed confidence. Not only did it gain respect for India but many developing and underdeveloped countries found a champion to remain neutral in the resurging cold war.

India has stood aside in the Ukraine war, officially refusing to back US sanctions or condemn the Russian State. In recent years, the Indian Government has been inching closer to the United States than Russia. The USA habitually calls favours from friends to support its global strategies. In the Ukraine war, the US has expected all NATO countries to toe its line. It has also called on Japan, and other countries who it considers to be in its axis.

India was expected by the United States to fall in line, condemn Russia and endorse sanctions. That didn’t happen. This shocked the Americans a bit. After all it does a lot of trade with India and has taken in a lot of professional Indians on H1B visas. India is a democracy, hence the US and other western countries like to think of it as part of their family.

India however had other priorities. Its official and get-out clause was simple. Its defence arsenal is largely Russian made and needs Russian parts. It does not want to compromise its defence. The West has not been a willing partner to sell India advanced defence equipment. Moreover the USA has armed India’s enemy neighbour, Pakistan, with powerful weapons.

US foreign policy is simple and tends to discard complexities of international theory. It is a case of ‘you are with us or against us. If you dither, we will quietly work on you to be in our orbit. But don’t ask us to be with you in your hour of need unless it serves US interests.’ There is usually a one-way price to pay for friendship with the United States. It is not the fault of the USA. Its democratic political structure is constructed in that way.

Europe and what is called the West, are beholden to the US. While Americans will sleep in warm homes and drive cars without worrying too much about the price of gas, Europeans are already trembling at the prospect of cold nights as gas prices become unaffordable. Many don’t drive cars now to save money on pricey petrol. Some of the countries going through this sacrifice were not keen to make a stand against Russia. But they had no choice with American demands. In Europe, what America wants, America gets. Macron, president of France is no Chirac and despite his attempts to present himself as a deal maker, could not stand up to bellicose British taunts or American expectations.

The US imposed sanctions isolated Russia at the UN, treated it as a third world country and tried to enforce no-fly zones across the world against any Russian travel outside the country. Apart from China, most countries were scared of going against the US but at the same time did not agree with it. They had no champion.

It is India that has given them strength and means to stand up as neutral in the conflict. India took a sophisticated approach. It didn’t want another dispute on the India-China border or with Pakistan currently. It knew that the Americans would not come to its aid unless it served them to do so. The Americans didn’t physically come to the aid of Ukraine, so neither did the European states. The question in India would be: Will the United States physically come to the aid of India if China and Pakistan invaded concurrently? The obvious answer is NO, unless United States saw tactical benefit in it.

India continues to buy oil from Russia. It has not supported Russia at the UN. However it has not voted against Russia much to the dismay of US. India hasn’t imposed sanctions or no-fly zone against Russia. It is even trading in Russian currency since dollars have been cut off from Russia. Extraordinarily, India has been selling Russian oil to the United States.

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India’s strong position on neutrality and refusal to be dragged into this war against Russia has in fact strengthened its hand in its relations with the US. The US needs India more than India needs the US. The US feels threatened by growing Chinese influence around the world. It feels it will lose its eminent place in the world and the Dollar could suffer. It relies on India to be its partner against China. India on the other hand has the option of improving its relations with China if the latter reciprocates and let the US fight its own battle.

India’s stand encouraged many middle east countries to remain almost neutral. Even Israel sat on the fence. Saudi Arabia has refused to condemn Russia. While these countries may have remained neutral anyway, India’s stand gave them that extra courage to gently rebuff the USA.

African countries have in fact quietly praised the leadership of India in this dispute. Many are too weak to refuse the US. But once India did, they felt they could fall behind India’s position.

India has thus gained respect and prestige as a result of refusing to be pushed around by the United States. Currently it appears that actually it is the West which has been isolated in the Ukraine situation rather than Russia. Europe unfortunately had no choice as it is heavily indebted to the US.

A positive result of India’s position is that China seems to have reviewed its entrenched hostility towards India. It was of the opinion that India would jump when the US asked and felt that India was doing America’s bidding in geo-politics. India joining the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) with United States, Japan and Australian had heightened China’s suspicions. Now, China may soften its position against India. It may lead to better regional relations if it understands that its own posturing may be pushing India into the US camp.

Given the complexity of the Ukraine situation, it seems India has not only retained an independent position, it has gained respect around the world and may well achieve regional peace. India’s fine-tuned foreign policy on Ukraine has also left it room to tilt towards the USA if the conflict goes against Russia.

Where is Ukraine Going?

By Jasdev Singh Rai 4th June 2022

It is not clear what the President of Ukraine expects the end of the war will look like. It is obvious what India’s options are. It is uncertain whether the West has clearly thought out the consequences of its involvement. However, what is clear is that the Ukraine war has started rearranging the order of power in the world, spelling a possible end to a globalised economy and testing world’s leading institutions. If 9/11 precipitated the age of the neurotic State fearful of its own citizens, the Ukraine war is starting the reshuffling of world order and possibly paving the way to reconfigurations of States in future. In this series, I explore each of this in turn.

That Russia is a very powerful country with some successful military campaigns behind it in recent decade cannot be disputed. That Ukraine is relatively a small power with a much smaller army and arsenal compared to Russia is also not contestable.

When Russia surrounded Ukraine in the East and North East, the general view was that if provoked, it would crush Ukraine in a short time. The United States war in Afghanistan lasted nearly 20 years while in Iraq it was about 15 years. The Syrian war is still going on after ten years. Comparatively, the Ukraine war is expected to last much shorter period, perhaps a year.

Ukraine’s choice was between compromising some of its sovereignty or risk war. It bravely chose to take on Russia. The odds are heavy when one compares the military strengths of the two.

With an army of around a million and reserves of around 2 million, Russia also has a phenomenal arsenal. It has 6,255 nuclear warheads, the largest in the world. Some of its hypersonic missile technology surpasses any in the West. It has so far only deployed about 10-15% of its fighting capabilities in Ukraine.

Ukraine is a smaller country with an army of some 200,000 and paramilitary forces consisting of National Guard and Border Guard etc of 60,000. Comparatively it has far fewer weapons, aircraft and missiles and most of them are from the Soviet era, although it has an arms manufacturing industry as well. But training its army, helping with strategy are officers from several western NATO countries, particularly United States and United Kingdom, although both deny any active participation in Ukraine itself having shifted training centres into Germany since February 2022.