Pankaj, a Delhi resident who went to a local market after Narendra Modi announced 21-day lockdown to combat Covid-19, rues the rush & panic buying at stores
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for a 14-hour Janata Curfew, or self-imposed isolation to be observed on Sunday (March 22), people by and large complied. His other appeal to come out of homes at 5 pm and clap as a mark of respect for health workers, however, was followed with extraordinary gusto. People not only came out to clap but also banged utensils, played drums and danced in close proximity, throwing caution to the wind and defeating the real purpose of isolation. But we are like that only.
On Tuesday (March 24) therefore, when Modi announced that
the country would go into a 21-day lockdown from midnight onward to combat
Coronavirus, what else would you expect from the Delhi residents than flood the
market, crowd the grocery stores, and stock up whatever you can lay your hands
on? I too stepped out to buy some essentials, and also to watch the tamasha. I wasn’t disappointed on the
latter.
Tamasha is the right word to describe what I saw at our local market in Mayur Vihar. Buyers behaved as if the apocalypse was on us. Many youth grabbed as many cigarette packets as their pockets could allow; the family man rushed from vegetable store to ration shop and took home the bucketful of whatever was available; shopkeepers, instead of assuring the customers of enough supply, goaded them into buying large amounts. Even before Modi’s address was over, the entire stock of breads, buns, instant noodles, meat and grain in our local Mayur Vihar market had gone off the shelves. It was sad and funny at the same time.
The buyers were still not satisfied. Many of them made their way for small, unauthorized shops in nearby clusters to stock up more. These shops, run by relaxed locals who had never experienced frantic buying, were at loss of their wits by the onslaught. Unable to keep with the rush and shouts for various items from all corners, they shouted back at the customers. “Police aa jayegi. Ek ek kar ke bolo. Halla matt karo (Police will come, speak at your turn one after another. Don’t make a racket).” Worse was their money management. They fumbled for the right amount of change and repeatedly punched at calculators to get their calculations right. The impatient customers egged them on to make more mistakes.
Petrol pumps were not spared by some panicky vehicle owners. Sedans queued up as if they were going to leave Delhi without thinking that the lockdown was for the entire country. Either, there was no clarity in the PM speech about essential supplies or people hadn’t bothered to sit through the entire address. I received several calls from friends if liquor could be available in my area at this hour.
As I moved back to my house with one litre of cooking oil
and some onions in my hand, I kept thinking how we are going to tackle the
deadly virus and the lockdown if we cannot fight the hoard mentality. And at a
larger psyche level, this also proved that even though people follow Modi’s
commands as their leader, somewhere in their minds they have little trust in
his crisis management ability.
Sociologists and hardened
journalists know it too well. No violent communal polarisation or riots,
killings, arson and mayhem can last for more than a few hours if the local
administration, the top police brass, and their bosses, don’t want it.
It is impossible to
stretch the bloody destruction of public and private property, ransack and burn
schools, kill innocents in cold blood, or move as armed mobs shouting
blood-thirsty slogans as a terroristic public spectacle, if the government of
the day does not want it. In that sense, the onus of all communal violence in
any locality across geographical zone lies with the administration and the law &
order enforcement machinery.
Besides, there are grey zones in all kinds of violence which are driven by identity and hate politics. Riots can be termed ‘spontaneous’, based on years of conflict and tension, brewing and simmering, which suddenly flare up for no rational rhyme or reason. For instance, a tiff in a barber shop, a minor roadside accident, a heated argument, a mindless scuffle – they can all lead to spontaneous violence between communities. However, if this simmering conflict which is usually buried and allowed to pass, is stoked and instigated by interested lobbies for vested interests, with a certain diabolical twist in terms of motive, timing or location, then this spontaneous violence can be actually called socially and politically engineered.
There could be also
situations that communal violence is engineered deliberately and with precise
planning even in a totally peaceful scenario where communities have shared
local space, public/social functions and festivals, trade and agriculture,
friendship and neighbourhood life, for prolonged periods of peace and harmony.
Then, a vicious mind can introduce a virus than can suddenly become an epidemic
with help from certain planned and hidden factors, inflammatory speeches and rallies,
and acquire brutish and nasty dimensions which can rip apart the harmonious
social structures built painstakingly since decades. And, then, the wounds just
refuse to heal, thereafter.
This is exactly what happened in Muzaffarnagar and Saharanpur and its highly fertile rural areas in western UP months before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections which never had a history of communal strife or conflict. This is a green revolution belt, with flourishing sugar cane and mustard fields, a stronghold of the inheritors of Jat leader and former prime minister Chaudhury Charan Singh, and stretches across the rich and laid-back townships and villages of Shamli, Kandhla, Baraut, Baghpat and Meerut. The BJP had no presence here, except among the trading communities in Saharanpur etc.
The engineered riots were galvanized using the fake news of ‘Love Jihad’. That Muslims were enticing Hindu girls into love marriages, etc. This sparked off local violence, deaths, killings, mass rallies, mahapanchayats, inflammatory speeches and a vicious rupture that has never been witnessed ever in western UP.
The BJP’s dream project
materialized in the 2014 elections: the Hindus, from upper caste Jats to
landless and divided Dalits, among others, united against the Muslims who were
cornered and pushed to the wall. The BJP swept the elections here for the first
time, while Charan Singh’s followers, including his son, lost out badly.
At least 60,000 Muslims were rendered homeless. And it took a while, fact-finding teams, and some brave reporting by reporters, to prove the fact that the Love Jihad propaganda was a diabolical ploy which succeeded; there were casualties among both the communities though the Muslims took the brunt, and scores of Muslim women were assaulted. Some of the most militant and popular hardliners and rabble-rousers among the local BJP leadership emerged from this ‘engineered’ communal violence.
Relatives of victims of Delhi communal violence mourn outside Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in New Delhi on February 27
More sinister than this phenomenon is what is called a ‘State-sponsored’ communal carnage. This happens when the State itself aligns with a community or powerful lobbies or violent vigilante groups, and thereby unleashes concerted and relentless violence of the most grotesque kind against another community, its own citizens, for political, hegemonic and social reasons. This is nothing but ethnic cleansing in a certain transparent form, like the Whites did with the Blacks in America, the Serbs did with thousands of Muslims in Bosnia, the Taliban did with the Hazaras in Afghanistan, and what the ISIS and Wahabi Jihadis continue to do with the Yazidis, Kurds and other communities in Syria and the Middle-east.
This includes massacres,
mass murders, killings as public spectacles and total destruction of life and
property of the victim communities so that they are savaged and ravaged and can
never find justice against the violence inflicted on their bodies, minds,
families and homes.
This is what happened in
1984 in Delhi and in 2002 in Gujarat. This kind of ethnic cleansing is called a
pogrom: master-minded, planned, organised and executed by the State machinery and
its ideological and sundry goons, with the full power and might of the State apparatus
against a helpless and innocent community. This is what happened to the Sikhs
in Delhi in 1984 and Muslims in Gujarat in 2002.
A State-sponsored
massacre.
This involves total
destruction of their economy, shelter, community life, religious places and
well-being, effectively rendering them as second/third class citizens,
oppressed, brutalized and crushed.
In Delhi, for instance,
the homes and shops of Sikhs were burnt and looted in full public view with the
police either watching or becoming tacit and overt accomplices of the looters
and murderers. In Trilokpuri, Sultanpuri, Jehangirpur, among other spots, where
humble and modest, hard-working Sikhs lived simple lives, they were killed in
the most macabre manner and their homes burnt. Gurudwars too were not spared. This
was a Congress government sponsored massacre led by its politicians in Delhi
with the full backing and support of the police and administration.
Besides, in other towns
and public transport, Sikhs were hounded and killed. Indeed, it took decades to
get a minimal sense of justice for those who suffered unimaginable tragedies
and brutalities. The graphic realism of the massacre was made public in a
report by the PUCL-PUDR, ‘Who are the Guilty’, perhaps the first decisive
report of the bloodbath.
Unlike 1984, the Gujarat
carnage of 2002, with Narendra Modi at the helm of affairs, was well documented
from day one, though there was no social media at that time. Print and TV
journalists did their job with precision and exposed the fault-lines where the violence
was master-minded by the State, with its Bajrangi and Sanghi footsoldiers on
the ground, enacting massacre after massacre, mass rapes and burning of women
and children alive, hacking and burning of people, and organised mayhem with
active support of the police machinery.
This reality has also been
documented by several fact-finding teams, tribunals, filmmakers, among others. Some
police officers testified about the dirty deeds of top politicians, and BJP
leaders like Babu Bajrangi and Mayaben Kodnani were found guilty, among several
local functionaries. For the BJP, it was yet another test of ethnic cleansing
with State backing that would not only destroy the Muslims, but also reassert
their masculine, xenophobic and Hindutva brand of politics.
This is exactly the
‘Gujarat model’ that they tried in Northeast Delhi last week. True, there were
occasional retaliation and violence by Muslim youngsters, but by and large,
this was a State-sponsored violence, with a loyal police in tandem, striking at
will, burning and killing, destroying markets and schools, hosting a flag on
top of a mosque, surrounding women and children, and running amok, like they
did in Gujarat.
This could not have
happened without the tacit and overt approval of the Union home minstry and Delhi
Police. This could not have happened without the mobs being allowed full freedom
to ravage and savage residential areas, shouting Jai Shri Ram, now a blood-thirsty
war cry for masked goons with sticks guns, iron rods and petrol bombs.
People from both
communities have died and a majority has died of gunshot wounds. Investigations
are likely to be fudged in the days to come, as they did in Gujarat, but,
still, the reality cannot be hidden. Indeed, it was Kapil Mishra who triggered
the violence with his speech. That even the Delhi High Court is giving him
space, after another judge had sought an FIR against him and other BJP leaders a
day before, points to a certain pronounced institutional collapse of Indian
democracy, where many believe that the Constitution itself is in danger.
In that sense, clearly,
this was no CAA polarisation, though that was the pretense. The fact is that
majority of the anti-CAA/NRC protests, including in Shaheen Bagh and all over
Delhi, led by women, have been transparently and relentlessly peaceful.
Clearly, this was not
spontaneous, as Amit Shah has claimed. Scores of innocents have died. The
number will only increase. Surely, and tragically, this was brazenly and
blatantly organsied for communal polarisation to target one community. This was
State-sponsored. And the whole world knows whose first and final trump card
this kind of organised hate politics is.
India gave President Donald
Trump exactly what he asked for. Massive crowds in Ahmedabad, the Taj Mahal in
Agra and energy & defence deals in Delhi. A deal worth $3 billion for the
purchase of Apache and MH-60 helicopters was finalized before the US President
landed in India.
The show and spectacle in Ahmedabad’s Motera stadium, where President Trump and First Lady Melanie were greeted by colorfully dressed enthusiastic crowds set the mood for the visit on Monday, soon after the US leader landed. He was accompanied by daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner, besides a host of senior officials.
It is well known that Donald Trump loves to be feted. Prime Minister Modi and his government ensured that President Trump would have exactly what he wanted. His ego got a massive boost and the visiting dignitary was clearly delighted. He showered praise on Prime Minister Modi and declared that America loved India and Washington would be a loyal friend.
Though violence has wracked north
east Delhi during the Trump visit, the President has refused to comment on that
or the Citizenship Amendment Act. On Kashmir, while he again offered mediation,
he made it clear that he was willing to help only if asked. Though he spoke of
fighting Islamic terror, he was not really aiming at rebuking Pakistan. For
Trump Islamic terror is ISIS or Al Qaeda and not groups operating against
India. Nevertheless he assured India that Pakistan is being urged to clamp down
on these groups and Prime Minister Imran Khan is getting there. Trump also
spoke of religious freedom and mentioned not just minority Muslims but
Christians as well. The Christian right in the US is part of Trump’s support
base.
Some are disappointed that no
major deals were announced, though a mega trade deal is in the offing. Two MoUs
were signed on mental health and safety of medical products. A letter of
cooperation between Indian Oil
Corporation and ExxonMobil India LNG was also signed. India is now looking to
US to diversify its energy market. Energy imports from the US which stood at $7
billion in 2019 will rise to $9 billion in 2020
The significance of the Trump visit goes way beyond deals or the personal chemistry between Modi and the US President. “It reinforces the connect between people of the two countries and it will resonate on every aspect of the relationship, from the strategic global partnership, maritime security, to trade and energy cooperation, homeland security,” foreign secretary Shringla said at a news conference after the talks at Hyderabad House.
The fact that President Trump
chose to come on a standalone visit to India, and on an election year, shows
exactly how far relations between India and the US have improved. The people
connect with 4 million Indian American’s playing a major part in this effort
and contributing to the US economy, the sky is the limit for these two
democracies. People in both countries endorse the ties. This is in sharp
contrast with India’s relations with Russia, which are excellent at the
governmental and political level, but poor on people to people contact. Getting
private business off the ground between India and Russia is a major problem,
despite the best efforts of New Delhi and Moscow. But there is no such difficulty
when it comes to Indian investment in US. Business leaders are eager to do so.
The transformation of ties between the two countries, which were on opposite sides of the Cold War divide, began with the Indo-US nuclear deal in 2005. The strategic consideration underlying Washington’s decision was to checkmate China’s growing military and economic might in Asia. By building ties with democratic India, another large Asian country and helping modernize its defence capabilities.
US wants India to be a part of the Indo-Pacific defence architecture an area which now includes the Indian Ocean. This works for both India and America, though Delhi has so far resisted the idea of joint patrolling of the Pacific, near the South China Sea. This has to do with avoiding a confrontation with China.
Trump’s visit should be seen against this background. And if a few billions go into US coffers in the process of building up India’s defence capabilities, it is fine. So far New Delhi has stuck to its promise of buying the S 400 missile defence system from Russia, despite enormous US pressure. Washington must realise that a country like India cannot be coerced.
It serves India for China to realise that Delhi has powerful backing in the international community. Though finally every country has to look after its own interests and not back on US or Europe to come to their help, developing India’s defence capabilities is important, more so as China has transformed its army, navy and air force.
Successive Indian prime
ministers from Atal Bihari Vajpayee, to Manmohan Singh and now Narendra Modi
know the importance of friendship with the US. Manmohan Singh risked his prime
ministership to get the deal through, despite opposition from a large majority
of his party men as well as the BJP and the Left parties. Singh realized more
than any other leader that the civil nuclear deal would open many doors for
India and help Delhi to finally be counted as a force in the world. India’s nuclear apartheid ended with the
signing of the pact for which former President George W Bush did some heavy
lifting.
The need to counter
authoritarian China with a democratic India is shared by Republicans and
Democrats alike. So it does not matter which party finally wins the November
elections, India-US ties will remain strong. However a Democratic President,
especially if Bernie Sanders is the winner, will certainly have much more to
say about human rights, treatment of minorities and Kashmir. For Trump these
are India’s internal problem and he trusts Prime Minister Modi to take care of
them. But democratic values are important and even Trump cannot totally ignore
them up to a point.
Both Modi and Trump have
gained domestic brownie points from the visit. Modi’s image among his followers
will get another major boost after Trump’s fulsome praise of him as a leader
with a vision. For Trump the India trip so close to elections may help to
garner Indian-American votes, though most have usually opted for Democrats.
More important Trump can boast of the welcome he received by adoring crowds in
India, a rarity for him on visits to other parts of the world. Critics here
believe India may have erred in opting blatantly for Trump in the November
elections. But that remains to be seen.
Hindutva is no longer the rabble rouser vote bank as it was in the last national election. When the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party won an emphatic victory in the recent Delhi assembly election, opposition leaders were quick to point that the Bharatiya Janata Party will have to recalibrate its strategy of polarisation now that it had been roundly rejected by the electorate of yet another state.
However, it would be extremely difficult for the saffron party to
abandon its majoritarian agenda in the forthcoming state elections. For the
BJP, hardline Hindutva, strident nationalism and communal talk is an article of
faith.
Hindutva seems to have worked for BJP in the last election. It probably sees the current run of defeats as aberrations. Besides the Hindutva strategy helps divert attention from bread and butter issues at a time when the economy is tottering. An election is the occasion for the BJP to propagate its ideology.
In fact, the BJP’s high-decibel poll campaign in Delhi with its focus on
the Shaheen Bagh protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act was meant not
just to consolidate the Hindu vote in the Capital but also to send out a
message across the country that this agitation is led by minorities and that
the amended citizenship law actually enjoys popular support.
Among the opposition leaders, West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool
Congress chief Mamata Banerjee appears most vulnerable in this regard.
Determined to add West Bengal to its kitty, the BJP has opted for a brazenly
communal narrative to dethrone Banerjee. Having met with remarkable success in
the last Lok Sabha election when it surprised everyone by winning 18 seats and
increased its vote share to 40 percent, the BJP has every reason to persist
with this strategy. It remains undeterred by the fact that its attempts to
focus on Article 370 and triple talaq did not cut much ice with the voters in
Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra.
It will not be surprising if the BJP’s polarising and divisive rhetoric
gets more shrill as it begins preparations for next year’s assembly election in
a state which has a 27 percent Muslim population.
The very fact that the BJP has re-elected Dilip Ghosh as president of the party’s West Bengal unit, is a clear message that the saffron party has no intention of going back on its communal agenda. Known for using vitriolic language, Ghosh is constantly stoking controversies with his inciting statements. Ghosh was in the eye of a storm recently when he described the anti-CAA protesters as “illiterate and uneducated” who are being fed biryani and “paid with foreign funds” to continue with their agitation. He constantly refers to the issue of infiltration in his speeches and has, on several occasions, thundered that all Bangladeshi Muslims in the state will be identified and chased out of India!
Not only has the BJP campaign reopened the old wounds inflicted in the
communal riots during the state’s partition of 1905, it has also been helped by
the fact that Mamata Banerjee is seen to be appeasing the minorities. The
Trinamool Congress chief who is personally leading the prolonged protests
against the amended citizenship law as well as the National Register of
Citizens and the National Population Register, has given the BJP enough fodder
to push ahead with its communal agenda.
Undoubtedly the Delhi defeat came as a rude shock for the BJP but, at
the same time, its leaders believe the party increased its tally from three to
eight seats and improved its vote share from 32 to 38 percent because it made
the anti-CAA protests as the centre piece of its campaign.
It’s still too early to say if the BJP’s strategy will succeed but, at present, Mamata Banerjee has the first mover advantage over her political rival. While the saffron party lacks a strong party organisation in West Bengal and has no credible chief ministerial candidate, the Trinamool Congress chief is already in election mode.
Like Kejriwal, she has stopped taking personal potshots at Prime
Minister Narendra Modi and is instead emphasising her governance record. She
has also taken the lead in articulating the dangers of the amended citizenship
law, the NPR and NRC. Mamata Banerjee is taking no chances as she realizes she
can ill-afford to underestimate the BJP as she had done in the 2019 Lok Sabha
election.
But before it goes for broke in West Bengal, the BJP will test the
waters in Bihar which is headed for polls later this year. Not only does the
state have a 17 percent Muslim population, the opposition (the Rashtriya Janata
Dal and the Congress) has staunchly opposed the CAA, reason enough for the
saffron party to polarise the electorate on religious lines.
Besides, the BJP is banking on its alliance partner, Bihar chief
minister and Janata Dal (U) president Nitish Kumar to act as a buffer against
its strident campaign. Though Nitish Kumar has endorsed the CAA, he has not
framed his support for the law on communal lines. Moreover, the Bihar chief
minister measures his words carefully and is not known to use extreme language.
This, the BJP feels, should help the alliance offset any possible adverse
repercussions of the saffron party’s high-pitched tirade against those opposing
the CAA.
However, if Mamata Benarjee can repeat AAP’s massive success in Bengal, voices in Bengal may start questioning Hindutva. Hindutva may be hanging by a thread.
Jalpa
Bhatt, a clinical psychologist for children with special needs, says Ahmedabad
came to a standstill on Feb 24 for a marketing gimmick which holds little value
Both my residence and workplace are in the Thaltej area of Ahmedabad. The 22 km long stretch between the airport and Motera Stadium had been witnessing increased security and multiple traffic diversions for the past many days, just so that American President Donald Trump’s visit to Ahmedabad could become memorable.
While earlier it took 20-25 minutes to reach my workplace from my home, during the last few days it has been taking nearly double the time. Most people were expecting the 22 km long stretch between the airport and Motera Stadium to come to a standstill for a few hours on Monday (February 24) and it did. Many of my friends who had workplaces on the 22-km long stretch couldn’t make it to work on Monday.
The roads were all decked up with lighting and decorations and some people were excited as if a festival was going on in Ahmedabad, but I’m personally amused by the whole situation. Last year, India was one of the countries on the US’ watchlist for Intellectual Property (IP) violations and now it seems as if nothing happened between the twi countries.
I feel this visit was a marketing ploy on Trump’s part. Every smart businessperson around the world is tapping into the Indian market, because that’s where the maximum number of audiences are. Nobody is concerned about the citizens of either country or even democracy. People here in Ahmedabad have mixed emotions regarding Trump and his politics.
It had been mentioned in reports that Sabarmati Aashram is going to be the first stop on Trump’s visit, where both the popular leaders would be paying homage to Gandhiji. But I feel this is merely lip service, for both the leaders don’t actually believe in Gandhiji’s principles deep down.
As about the wall that built around the
slum on Trump’s route, I don’t think it was a good idea at all. Even though
Ahmedabad is the hub of trade and business in India and people from many faiths
and cultures live here, yet people are getting divided more and more. Everyone
is keeping to their corner and thus I feel this wall will create more divisions
between the rich and the poor.
Also, I wonder why the people aren’t bothered now about taxpayers’ money being spent on impressing Trump rather than actually building a city where no one has to live in slum-like conditions. Where is all this money coming from, especially when it’s a one-off visit from Trump? It’s not like he has been invited to the Republic Day parade.
No official holiday was declared on February 24, but many people were keen to see Trump and how he actually interacts with people. In fact some people are openly excited and are calling it a historic visit. Even though I feel Trump is in India only to access its soft power and create a soft corner in people’s hearts, I don’t think it will lead to some concrete developments, yet I am curious to see both him as well as people’s reactions to him.
I was planning to go out on the 24th,
but couldn’t go because I couldn’t take time off work. However, I still feel
that the government should invest its time and money to make the lives of
people living in India by creating jobs, rather than spend so much on visits by
world leaders.
Sahista
Memon, a homeopathy practitioner in Ahmedabad, says instead of creating walls
to hide poor households, governments should ensure that nobody needs to live in
slums
I live in the Ellis Bridge area of Ahmedabad and run a homeopathic clinic in the same area. My house is around 10 km away from the airport and even though traffic diversions are there for American President, Donald Trump’s visit, since I don’t have to travel much for work, I am fine.
However, my house helps, driver etc. live near the airport and are finding it difficult to commute easily because of the traffic diversions. Also, it is taking them longer to reach our house for work. They are apprehensive about how it will all turn out on Monday, February 24, the day Trump comes visiting. They have told me, “Ma’am Monday ko subah ghar se bahut jaldi nikalna padega” (We will have to leave home really early on Monday to reach work due to Namaste Trump event).
Unko
takleef me dekh ke mujhe bhi thodi takleef hoti hai. Theleaders don’t know how
their itineraries impact the lives and livelihoods of the common man when the
whole city is brought to a standstill. In my part of town, which is at the
centre of Ahmedabad, there isn’t much buzz regarding Trump’s visit, but on the
outskirts which is where his travel route is (from the airport to Motera Stadium),
people are quite excited.
I would have been excited if Barack Obama
was coming. He is a leader I hugely admire. He was so popular with everyone
without even having to try hard. To me Trump seems like a power- lover who is
more concerned about his image. Modiji is also trying to show the world India’s
new improved image where even the President of the most powerful country in the
world feels happy to visit.
The wall built to cover one of the slums falling on Trump’s route isn’t a great idea to be honest. Trump’s proposed wall on the US-Mexico border has shown us, why walls anywhere aren’t a great idea, especially when they are built with the purpose of hiding something uncomfortable or built from a place of fear. If the wall is built to protect the residents of a particular area or country, isn’t it better to take everyone into account and tell them how a new structure is beneficial to them? All stakeholders should be consulted. Everyone’s point of view should be taken into account.
Moreover, I would like to say such
structures should be temporary. If there is a real threat to people, just
building a wall won’t work; ‘concrete’ work needs to go like intelligence gathering.
If the wall is built to hide slums, shouldn’t we be working on policies that
ensure nobody needs to live in slums?
So, no I won’t be going out to watch Trump
or see the public’s reaction to him. I will be busy with my work and that is
what is required in nation building, an honest day’s work.
The humiliating defeat
suffered by the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Delhi assembly election has not
proved to be an auspicious beginning for the party’s month-old president JP Nadda. Though it is true that it was
Union Home Minister Amit Shah who led the party’s high-decibel campaign in
Delhi, history books will record the result as BJP’s first electoral drubbing
under Nadda’s stewardship.
Out of power for over
two decades, the BJP was predictably desperate to take control in Delhi.
But the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party proved to be a formidable
opponent and the BJP fell by the wayside once again.
Well before Nadda took
over as the BJP’s 11th president, it was widely acknowledged
that he will not enjoy the same powers as his predecessor Amit Shah did but, nevertheless,
would be called to take responsibility for the party’s poll defeats as well as
organisational matters.
Nadda began his tenure
with a disadvantage as it is difficult to live up to Shah’s larger-than-life
image. Amit Shah, who served as BJP president for five years has easily
been the most powerful party head in recent times. Known for his supreme
organisational skills, Shah is chiefly responsible for the BJP’s nation-wide expansion,
having built a vast network of party workers and put in place formidable
election machinery. No doubt Modi’s personality, charisma and famed
oratory drew in the crowds but there is no denying that Shah contributed
equally to the string of electoral victories notched by the BJP over the
last five years.
Given that Shah has
revamped the party organisation from scratch and placed his loyalists in
key positions, there are serious doubts that the affable, low-key and smiling
Nadda will be allowed functional autonomy. Will he be able to take independent
decisions, will he constantly be looking over his shoulder, will he be allowed
to appoint his own team or will he be a lame-duck party president? These
are the questions doing the rounds in the BJP as there is all-round
agreement that Shah will not relinquish his grip over the party organisation.
This was evident in the run-up to the Delhi assembly polls as it was Shah and
not Nadda who planned and led the party’s election campaign.
In fact, it is
acknowledged that Nadda was chosen to head the BJP precisely because he is
willing to play the second fiddle to Shah. Party leaders maintain that the new
president is unlikely to make any major changes in the near future and
that he will be consulting Shah before taking key decisions. For the moment,
state party chiefs appointed by Shah have been re-elected, ensuring
that the outgoing party president remains omnipresent.
Though Nadda has
inherited a far stronger party organisation as compared to his earlier
predecessors, the new BJP president also faces a fair share of challenges. He
has taken over as party chief at a time when the BJP scraped through in
the Haryana assembly polls, failed to form a government in Maharashtra and was
roundly defeated in Jharkhand. The party’s relations with its allies have
come under strain while the ongoing protests against the new citizenship
law, the National Register of Citizens and the National Population
Register have blotted the BJP’s copybook.
These developments
have predictably came as a rude shock to the BJP leadership and its cadres
who were convinced that the party was invincible, especially after it came
to power for a second consecutive term last May with a massive mandate.
Nadda’s first task has
been to boost the morale of party workers and make them believe that
the recent assembly poll results were a flash in the pan and that the BJP’s
expansion plans are on course.
After Delhi, the Bihar
election poses the next big challenge this year. The party’s ally, the Janata Dal
(U), has upped the ante, meant primarily to mount pressure on the BJP for
a larger share of seats in this year’s assembly elections. Realising that the
BJP cannot afford to alienate its allies at this juncture, Amit Shah
has already declared Nitish Kumar as the coalition’s chief ministerial
candidate, which effectively puts the Janata Dal (U) in the driver’s seat.
This has upset the BJP’s Bihar unit which has been pressing for a senior
role in the state and is even demanding that the next chief minister should be
from their party.
The BJP has to
necessarily treat its allies with kid gloves as they have been complaining
about the saffron party’s “big brother” attitude and that they are being
taken for granted. While Shiv Sena has already parted company with the
BJP, other alliance partners like the Lok Janshakti Party and the Shiromani
Akali Dal have also questioned the BJP’s style of functioning.
The crucial West
Bengal assembly election next year will also be held during Nadda’s
tenure. The BJP has been working methodically on the ground in this state
for the past several years now and has staked its prestige on dethroning Mamata
Banerjee.
But the Trinamool
Congress chief is putting up a spirited fight, sending out a clear message to
the BJP that it will not be so easy to oust her. Banerjee has declared war
against the Modi government on the issues pertaining to the CAA-NRC-NPR and
also activated her party cadres who have spread across the state to
explain the implications of the Centre’s decision to the poor and illiterate.
The BJP, on the other hand, is struggling to get across its message.
As in the case of
Delhi, Shah can be expected to take charge of the Bihar and West Bengal
assembly polls while Nadda will, at best, be a marginal player. Again it will
be left to Shah to mollify the party’s allies as it is too sensitive and
important a task to be handled by Nadda.
Like all political
parties led by strong leaders, a BJP defeat will be seen as Nadda’s failure
while a victory will be credited to Modi and Shah.
Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa’s visit
to India this week (February 7-11) will be an opportunity to forget past
bitterness and begin on a clean state. The former strong man will get a warm
welcome in the Capital, when he arrives in for his first official visit in his
new avatar. Delhi is as eager as the Rajapaksas to improve relations.
The emphasis will be on getting the
political relations right, considering that the Rajapaksa’s second term as President,
where he openly wooed China and gave short shrift to India, was a nightmare for
New Delhi. This was the period when Colombo allowed Chinese submarines to dock
in Colombo and allowed Beijing to spread its wings across the island nation,
despite Delhi’s security concerns.
Mahinda Rajapaksa’s supporters allege that India had a hand in his defeat in the 2015 elections. They blame the former RAW official posted in the High Commission in Colombo of organising the anti-Rajapaksa front of like-minded people from both the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the United National Party to oust Rajapaksa. Whatever be the truth of the allegations, suspicion remained. But all that is now in the past as the two sides hope to rebuild frayed ties.
The Rajapaksa brothers (President Gotabaya
and PM Mahinda as well as state defence minister Chamal) know that it is
important to have good relations with India for all ruling dispensations in
Colombo. Mahinda Rajapaksa who is the main strategist for the family, had built
his bridges with India soon after he lost power. During private visits to
India, he had made it a point to call on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His
closeness to maverick politician Subramanian Swamy ensured access to the PM.
Though the LTTE has been wiped out, Tamil-speaking minorities in the north and east of the island, indeed even those living in Colombo, look to New Delhi for support. In the initial stages when the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam began their movement against discrimination by the Sinhala-Buddhist majority, they were solidly backed by New Delhi and Tamil Nadu. So far while the Tamils have been given some of their rights, the complete devolution of power to the provinces have not yet come through. India will be urging Mahinda Rajapaksa to carry out all the provisions of the 13th amendment, which was brokered by India in the past. The Tamil National Alliance, the party of Tamil MPs has been urging the government to fulfil the promised devolution provisions.
It is unlikely that the Rajapaksa brothers, who believe in a unitary state, will be in a hurry to fully implement the 13th amendment to the Constitution. In fact President Gotabaya himself believes that rebuilding the Northern Province and bringing development to the Tamils is more important then giving them greater autonomy. `Development over devolution,’’ is what Gotabaya thinks is the need of the hour. The Tamil population which have long yearned for more meaningful devolution may not quite agree. Aware of this, New Delhi will continue to push for devolution.
India is also in the mood to ensure that
the past mistakes are not repeated because that will push Sri Lanka into
China’s waiting arms. This is at a time when PLA vessels, including warships
are increasingly plying the Indian Ocean region and developing close ties with
India’s immediate neighbours.The BJP government since 2014 has been working
towards strengthening ties with all its Indian Ocean neighbours whether it is
Mauritius, Seychelles, Sri lanka and Maldives.
New Delhi’s tough policy towards Nepal and
the decision to blockade that land-locked nation in 2015, has had severe
consequences for India. Nepal turned to China for help. The Chinese naturally
grabbed the opportunity. The Chinese are today well entrenched in neighbouring
Nepal, thanks to Prime Minister Oli’s close ties with Beijing. China is giving
India a run for its money in the Himalayan nation. India realises the dangers of
China’s presence in its immediate neighbourhood, and is hoping to counter the
dragon in its periphery. This means wooing the neighbours, and ensuring that
Indian interests in the region are protected.
South Block is no mood to give more space
to China in its immediate neighbourhood. And with China investing massively in
Sri Lanka, from the Humbantota Port, to modernising the Colombo port and
building the USD 1.4 billion port city in the capital, which would house an
International Financial Centre. Delhi has no time to waste.
India has also stepped up its efforts. In
fact, the move to woo the Rajapaksa brothers began with foreign minister S Jaishankar
rushing to Colombo soon after Gotabaya’s election victory, inviting him to
visit and reassuring him that Delhi was ready to do business with the new
regime. Gotabaya helped matters by announcing that Sri Lanka’s foreign policy
would be neutral as the island had no wish to get involved in the rivalry
between the two Asian powers. Gotabaya came to India soon afterwards in November
2019, and had meaningful conversations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and
other Indian leaders. India announced a credit of $400 million to boost
development and a further $50 million for security. Sri Lanka lost 250 people after
the Easter bombings. Anti-terror cooperation is high on the list of bilateral
ties now. In fact, Indian intelligence had warned their Lankan counter part of
a possible terror attack. But the squabbling coalition of Sirisena and Ranil
Wickremasinghe did not act on the information.
Apart from the ongoing project of building
50,000 house in the war torn Northern Province, announced in 2010, India and
Japan are joining hands to build a deep sea Container Terminal in Colombo port.
This was announced in 2019. India will also work towards refurbishing the
Trincomalee oil farm in the Eastern province.
At one time, decades back, India was worried about US eyeing the oil
tank project in Trincomalee. Now though India has been working at refurbishing
some of the old tanks. Sri Lanka has leased out the oil tanks to India, to
jointly operate a strategic oil facility. This is not a new project but the
Modi government now is paying much more attention and will take up the work in
earnest. This will help in the integrated development of Trincomolee and the
entire Eastern province. Trincomalee is strategically located in the eastern
side of Sri Lanka and in the heart of the Indian Ocean. According to reports
from Colombo the US is also eyeing Trincomalee port, perhaps to checkmate
China’s presence in Humbantota further south of the island.
Keeping all this in mind, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s visit this weekend is important. Last month China’s foreign minister Wang Yi was in Colombo on an official visit. China will continue to be an important partner of Sri Lanka. Considering that Beijing has the money power to back it, no developing nation wants to close the door to China. So despite criticising Mahinda Rajapaksa for giving a free reign to China, the India-friendly government of Maithripala Sirisena and Ranil Wickeremasinghe, allowed China to continue the projects it had signed with the previous government. So South Asian neighbours will benefit from the India-China rivalry playing out in the region.
Though China’s cheque book diplomacy works wonders, people to people contacts are much better with India. Buddhism is a strong link and Sri Lankans, including Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa does not miss an opportunity to visit the holy sites in India. He will be visiting Sarnath as well as Bodh Gaya during this trip. The religious and cultural bonds are India’s strong points. All this will come into play as India hopes to contain China in its neighbourhood.
As the battle for the most powerful and prestigious chair in the country rages on, many voters have put their penny on Rahul Gandhi as the next Prime Minister of India. Does the Gandhi scion has the mettle to handle the power and responsibility that comes with the post? In a new series of articles, LokMarg will examine the various contenders for the Prime Minister’s job, starting with the arch-challenger, Rahul Gandhi.
Well before Rahul
Gandhi took over as the Congress
president, a large section of his own party members were not sure that he
had the capacity to lead them. After all, the Nehru-Gandhi scion had acquired a
reputation of being a non-serious politician who was yet to get a firm grip on
the party’s organization. In addition, he had an uneasy relationship with other
opposition parties and was unable to connect with the public on account of his
poor oratorical skills.
The fact that Rahul
Gandhi had been unsuccessful in delivering electoral victories for the party
was another negative. These doubts about his leadership qualities were further
fuelled by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s relentless and highly successful
campaign, dubbing Rahul Gandhi as “Pappu”.
However, there has
been a dramatic change in Rahul Gandhi over the past eighteen months. His
oratory has improved considerably though he is not in the same class as Prime
Minister Narendra Modi. The Congress president is gradually coming across as a
mature politician, who is fighting shy of taking on the Modi government and is
more focused on handling the party organization. Rahul Gandhi further redeemed
himself with a credible performance in last year’s Gujarat assembly polls,
which was followed by victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
More than a year after
he took control of the party, the Congress president has finally shed the
“pappu” image while his critics within the party have been effectively
silenced.
But does this mean
that Rahul Gandhi is now ready to shoulder the responsibility of leading the
nation as its Prime Minister just in case the post-poll numbers favour the
Congress. No, the Congress president has still some distance to cover
before he is accepted by the public at large as a credible alternative to Modi.
For starters, he is sorely handicapped by his lack of administrative
experience. Rahul Gandhi had an opportunity to fill this gap in his resume when
he was offered a Cabinet berth in the Manmohan Singh government but he decided
instead to focus on party affairs. Besides his lack of experience, Rahul Gandhi
does not instill confidence in the voter that he can handle matters of state
without fumbling or making a faux pas.
Congress leaders, of
course, are quick to point out that his father Rajiv Gandhi also came with no
previous experience in running a government when he took over as Prime Minister
in 1984 in the wake of Indira Gandhi’s assassination. However, Rajiv Gandhi had
the advantage of a massive majority in the Lok Sabha which enabled him to take
decisive steps in both domestic and foreign affairs. Despite widespread
skepticism, he pushed ahead with advances in information technology and
telecommunications sectors. Rajiv Gandhi was also emboldened to take risky
decisions like signing the Longowal accord in insurgency-hit Punjab, was
responsible for a paradigm shift in Sino-India relations and sought to build
bridges with Sri Lanka though he ended up paying a heavy price for it.
Unlike his father,
Rahul Gandhi is not expected to have the luxury of numbers in case he does get
a shot at ascending the Prime Minister’s kursi. The Congress footprint has
shrunk considerably over the past three decades and the party has gradually
come to terms with the fact that it needs the support of coalition partners to
come to power at the Centre as it cannot do on its own. There are lurking
doubts that Rahul Gandhi has the temperament or the gravitas to deal with
temperamental and demanding allies even if there is a remote possibility that
the other opposition parties will concede the Prime Minister’s post to him.
Undoubtedly, he will have to rely on Sonia Gandhi and other senior leaders like
Ahmed Patel and Ghulam Nabi Azad to keep the allies in good humour.
Whatever other
disadvantages he may have, the Congress president will have a large inhouse
talent pool at his disposal to assist him in running the government. Besides,
Rahul Gandhi comes with a long and rich legacy which is both a source of
strength and weakness. On one hand, the party’s past experience provides a
ready template for governance but on the other hand, it will also make it
difficult for the young Gandhi to chart an independent path. Here, he will be
hemmed in not just by his coalition partners but also by his party members.
Remember the stiff resistance PV Narasimha Rao faced from Congress insiders
when he deviated from the party’s set economic policy and drafted Manmohan
Singh to liberalize the economy.
Nevertheless, the
Congress brand name, though considerably diluted, will give Rahul Gandhi an
edge over the other Prime Ministerial contenders in the opposition camp. The
Nehru-Gandhi scion may be lacking in experience but he can always fall back on
seasoned leaders like former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, P. Chidambaram,
Anand Sharma and A.K. Antony to navigate him through possible minefields in the
areas of economic and foreign affairs.
Like his mother, Rahul
Gandhi has made it abundantly clear that he will build on the party’s pro-poor
image with a special emphasis on addressing agrarian distress and the
implementation of an income guarantee scheme for the needy as detailed in the
party’s election manifesto. But it is equally certain that there will be no
going back on economic reforms ushered in by Manmohan Singh.
Rajiv Gandhi’s friend
Sam Pitroda is currently playing a key role in Rahul Gandhi’s dispensation and
will continue to do so if the Congress president makes the cut as the country’s
Prime Minister. Pitroda has been instrumental in planning and organizing Rahul
Gandhi’s tours in the United States, Britain and the Middle East where he has
interacted with both the Indian diaspora and global leaders, policy makers,
think tanks and academics.
The intention is to
position Rahul Gandhi as an international leader, to correct the perception
that he is a dilettante, improve his image abroad and provide an opportunity to
the outside world to get acquainted with his views on a vast array of subjects.
As in the case of economic affairs, Rahul Gandhi is unlikely to deviate from
the Congress position in the area of international affairs which will continue
to focus on strengthening ties with both Russia and the United States and
improving relations with the neighboring countries. An assurance to this effect
has been conveyed during Rahul Gandhi’s trips abroad and his periodic meetings
with visiting world leaders.
BJP has launched an aggressive election campaign on Hindu ‘victimhood’ that requires to be repaired (sic) with attempts to enforce its supremacy over others
Cradle of at least three and home of
many more, India is what it is because of the multiplicity of faiths. Religion
and religiosity are integral to its culture that has had a continuity few
others have.
Call it mutual ‘tolerance’ or
‘acceptance’, Indians professing different faiths live together despite past foreign
military invasions followed by conversions, whether they were forced by the
sword, coerced through temptations or voluntary. There is assimilation even as
people are sought to be divided on religious lines.
What is ‘secular’ in modern-day
parlance has evolved with Indian connotations and convenience, just as what is
‘communal’ has to explain what is not ‘secular’. And ‘secular’ itself has
undergone transformation from being anti-faith and irreligious to treating all
faiths with equal respect.
For two millennia-plus, India has
remained pluralist and yet, in terms of numbers, overwhelmingly (79.8 percent)
Hindu.
And yet, the current election is
witnessing an aggressive discourse on Hindu ‘victimhood’ that requires to be
repaired with attempts to enforce its supremacy over others. Hindutva, the ploy
used to give political turn to the majority faith, gives new twists to the very
understanding of the terms ‘tolerance’ and ‘acceptance’. Secular is spelt ‘sick-ular’.
Three top members of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) including an estranged member of the Gandhi ‘dynasty’ courted
controversy last week for appearing to threaten people to vote for them.
A video showed women and child welfare minister Maneka Gandhi
warning a Muslims’ gathering to vote for her or be shunned if she returns to
power. “I am winning with the help of the people. But if my victory comes
without the support of Muslims, then I will not feel good… “It will leave a
bitter taste. And then when a Muslim comes for any work, then I will think let
it be.”
The other new incident involved Sakshi Maharaj, a Hindu monk,
who told a gathering in Kanpur that he would “curse” those who do not vote for
him. “When a saint comes to beg and isn’t given what he asks for, he takes away
all the happiness of the family and in turn gives curse to the family,” Maharaj
said, adding he was quoting from sacred Hindu scriptures. He is facing 34
criminal charges, including alleged murder, robbery and cheating.
These
offenders are from the ruling alliance. But in a growing list, politicians from
other parties and alliances, like Navjot Singh
Sidhu, Mayawati and Azam Khan, have also used religious ploys, sexist remarks, hate
and intimidation to win support of the electorate even though soliciting votes
on religious lines or threatening voters is prohibited.
The Election Commission, while struggling to maintain its
authority and a semblance of fairness, has admitted before the country’s
highest court that it is ‘toothless’ and ‘helpless’ before the offenders.
For the first time, the statutory body conducting the world’s
largest democratic exercise has slapped token punishments of exclusion from
public speaking, using its limited powers, to some of these offenders for violating
the EC-set norms by appealing to religion or employing religion-related issues.
But the punishment has been ridiculed by some who play to the public gallery
and some others have repeated their offences.
Besides
Sakshi Maharaj, ‘curse’ has become the new cussword. It is astounding that what
one read in fairy tales and mythology is used today to damn opponents.
The
most controversial curse has come from Pragya Singh Thakur, a lady monk
connected with a Hindu extremist body, nominated by the BJP to contest. Unique
and complicated, her case needs elaboration. She is on trial for offences ranging
from conspiracy to murder and transporting explosives. For want of evidence, a
special court recently exonerated her for the 2007 blast on Samjhauta Express,
the train that links India and Pakistan. Seventy Pakistanis returning home and
Indians visiting their relations in Pakistan died.
The
court passed severe strictures against the investigators who first probed a
Muslim group and then switched to “Hindu terror”, allegedly on political
orders. In effect, none has been convicted and punished, even as India demands
of Pakistan to try and punish those involved in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks.
Thakur
said she had ‘cursed’ the Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) chief, Hemant Karkare who she
alleges tortured her. The police officer died fighting the Pakistani militants
in Mumbai. Honoured posthumously, Karkare had also led
the investigations against Thakur in other cases including one pertaining to
blasts at a mosque. Thakur
now declares that he died “within five weeks” of her ‘curse’. She later
regretted her remark, but wants everyone who implicated her in terror attacks
to apologise.
Modi
has defended her nomination, declaring that there is “nothing called Hindu
terrorism.” Legalities apart, her nomination, while she is out on bail on
health grounds, allows her to convert herself from a terror
suspect and a victim of her investigators and the judiciary who were ostensibly
doing their job, to a heroine upholding her faith.
Admittedly,
Thakur is not convicted. She is among the many contesting this election, like
others with criminal cases. But in nominating her, Modi and BJP that routinely hand out certificates of
nationalism and tag anyone who disagrees with their dominant narrative as a
traitor, are rooting for an accused in a terrorism case.
Individuals
apart, how faith determines the fate of friends and adversaries is clear from BJP’s
official Twitter account. It quotes party chief Amit Shah’s speech that explicitly
declared that if re-elected, it would implement the Citizenship bill for the
entire country and would act against all infiltrators who were not Hindu, Sikh
or Buddhist.
The party’s stand on different communities is no secret. The
important thing is the fear that this position elicits among potential voters.
Those obviously excluded are Muslims — invaders who stayed
on to rule — and Christians, although those who came as traders and turned
colonizers hardly exist in present-day India. The targets could be members of the
24 million community that accounts for 2.3 percent of the totally population. But they are ‘outsiders’.
The most telling exclusion – one hopes it’s inadvertent — is
that of Parsis, the Zoroastrian migrants from Iran who made India their home 14
centuries ago — in Gujarat, the home-state of Modi and Shah.
The
opposition has no answer to this campaign. By not countering the BJP on
lynching and numerous other issues that pertain to the minorities and depressed
sections of the society, the opposition parties by and large, but the Congress especially,
have conceded to the BJP’s ideological narrative.
Sadly, Shah’s viewing the electorate as Ali-versus-Bajrangbali
is finding tacit acceptance from rising urban middle classes. Unlikely to end
with these elections, it is now a reality of our times, unlikely to go away.
One
is sticking the neck out mid-way through the voting process, with its outcome barely
three weeks away. Forget arguing over Modi’s development plank and his many
achievements and failures, he could get a fresh mandate by dividing people on
religious lines, instilling fear in them. But if he fails, it will be because a
resilient society that has lived in plurality for long has its own silent, even
if opaque, way of dealing with such attempts.
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