Coronavirus In India Archives - Lokmarg

‘India Has Attained Herd Immunity; No Need To Fear Covid Variants’

By LokMarg 26th January 2023

Dr AK Arun, a renowned public health scientist, rues that India lacks accurate data on treatment and deaths due to Covid, which would help us prepare for any future health emergency

There have been reports of a resurge of Covid cases in many countries. According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the risk of the new sub-variant XBB.1.5 is rising. This is more dangerous in spreading infection than the sub-variant BF.7.

There are ten different sub-variants of SARS-CoV-2 in India and BF.7 is one of them. So far, all of the four known cases of BF.7 in India have recovered by home isolation. They did not need to be admitted to the hospital. Dr Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist at the World Health Organization has expressed concern over XBB.1.5, another sub-variant of the omicron variant. There are more than 300 subtypes of Omicron itself, of which XBB.1.5 is a recombinant virus that can kill antibodies in the body. Therefore, there is a need to monitor the situation.

It is being said that the situation has worsened in China after the lockdown was completely lifted. Epidemiologists also blame China’s “zero Covid policy” for the resurgence of Corona infections in the country. Due to strict lockdowns, herd immunity in people could not be achieved.

India’s case is different. Over last two year when Covid infection was rampant, Indians have achieved herd immunity. Thus the chances of controlling it are high and there is no need to panic. Although the Omicron variant of Corona has been constantly mutating into new forms since last month, its deadly impact has not been witnessed in India so far.

ALSO READ: ‘If Covid Rebounds, All Must Be Treated Uniformly’

In the absence of proper protocol in the initial phase of the epidemic, doctors indiscriminately used steroids etc. Unnecessary medicines given to a Corona-affected patient were also black-marketed because the doctors themselves were not clear about what and why the medicine should be given. In most cases, the patient’s attendants were deciding whether to administer such a medicine to the patient, whatever the price. It is possible that post-Covid complications are the outcome of indiscriminate use of these medicines than the infection itself.

There have also been different viewpoints on the Covid deaths in India. Data related to any epidemic, especially a global epidemic, is important for any study. Since 2021, no concrete data has been available from government institutions. Atul Kotwal, executive director of the National Health System Resource Center, admits that there are problems with the Covid data. Dr T. Sundararaman, former executive director of the same institute, justifies the WHO figures in terms of deaths due to Corona in India. For, we lack an accurate mechanism to collect death data; only 21 per cent of the deaths are recorded by the registrar.

Another challenge is to handle the fear mongering about the Covid virus. The atmosphere of anxiety that has arisen among people post two Covid waves can lead to ill-will about certain people, places or communities. This can have serious impact on society as well the mental health of people. We must deal with this sense of stigma.

For this, we have to understand that the virus does not look at social class, race, community or nationality. In such cases, we should put ourselves in the shoes of an affected person or community. The dissemination of information must be fair and free of any bigotry.

(Dr AK Arun is a national award-winning Homeopathy practitioner and headed the research team of the Delhi Government on alternative cures for COVID-19)

As told to Abhishek Srivastava

‘I Get Jitters When I Hear Covid-19 Is Not Over Yet’

By LokMarg 16th January 2023

Satya Priya Shankar, 39, a Mumbai-based school teacher, says Govt must be mindful of the long-term implications of the pandemic which deepened the poverty pit

The covid-19 pandemic has been the first of its kind of health calamity the world witnessed in the 21st century. The cyclical slowdown that set in the Indian economy before the outbreak of the pandemic got intensified on the back of cliff effects and setbacks generated by the pandemic.

It is obvious that the pandemic has had a deep, searing impact on the Indian economy, in terms of both total monetary activity and livelihoods. The financial well-being of the masses had been struggling for several years before then too, with falling investment and employment. Covid gave it a fatal push, raising inequalities and challenging health and nutrition. We are constantly hearing that contagion is not over yet and the next wave is expected very soon. This news is giving us jitters, as we have to start saving a certain amount of our earnings to deal with lockdowns and pay cuts.

For the migrant working class in the informal sector, the loss of livelihood and the inability to meet the basic necessities of everyday living, such as housing and food, were the major concerns. Consequently, waves of workers and their families were forced into long treks to their faraway homes along roads and railway tracks crisscrossing the country. The middle class like us, in contrast, remained cloistered in their homes, with their health risk perceptions and economic insecurities.

ALSO READ: ‘I Lost My Partner To Covid, And I Blame Govt For It’

There is a section of the middle class that comprises shopkeepers, small transporters, catering, hospitality, entertainment; lawyers, self-employed professionals, teachers in private schools & colleges, running coaching centers, etc. Two waves of the virus have left this section as vulnerable as it experienced great financial stress due to restrictions and lockdowns.

It was this section that bore the brunt of the two coronavirus waves the most. With lockdowns and closures, their earnings completely dried up, and the expenses in the form of the family running cost, ongoing EMI, home and personal loans, fees of school and college-going children, rent, electricity bills, etc kept on piling on top of that we faced salary deductions too in the name of COVID. As a result, apart from financial stress, we had mental as well as physical stress too. We slogged for years to graduate from the lower to the middle class but these two waves of coronavirus pushed one-third of us back to the lower class with earnings of less than ₹700 per day.

The growing inequalities can create more consumption by the super-rich, but that will not be enough to dig the economy out of its current hole. A government in denial of this obvious fact can only make things worse.

In a nutshell, the government needs to take cognizance of this vulnerable section of the middle class which is meek, has no voice, is helpless, and lives under tremendous stress. They are prepared to do anything to fill their belly even after acquiring degrees like MBA, LLB, B.tech, B.Ed, etc. It will be most befitting if some attention is paid to this class too.

As told to Deepti Sharma

Delhi Records 11 New Covid Cases In 24 Hours

By LokMarg 1st January 2023

Delhi recorded 11 new Covid cases in the last 24 hours, with a case positivity rate of 0.31 per cent, stated a bulletin issued by the Delhi Health Department on Sunday.

With the fresh infections, the active cases in the city stand at 42. According to the bulletin, 8 Covid patients recovered from the virus in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of recoveries to 19,80,670.

However, with no death from Covid reported over the last 24 hours, the overall toll in the national capital remained at 26,521.

As part of the country’s ongoing vaccination drive, 1,151 Covid vaccine shots were administered in the city in the last 24 hours, taking the cumulative tally to 3,73,60,532.

As many as 2,449 Covid samples were tested in the last 24 hours taking the total number of samples tested in the national capital to 4,06,07,340.

The bulletin further informed that the national capital has, so far, not reported any cases of Omicron BF.7 sub-variant, the new Covid strain blamed for the explosion in cases in neighbouring China, Japan and several other countries.

It added that the Centre had instructed the Delhi government to ensure genome sequencing of every reported case.

Earlier this month, Dr Suresh, MD, Lok Nayak Jai Prakash Narayan Hospital said the hospital authorities are awake to the global Covid surge and arrangements are being made to augment infrastructure, including more ICU beds.

“BF.7 cases have gone up exponentially in some countries, including China, South Korea, Japan, Brazil and the US, over the last week. Four cases of BF.7 were detected in India — in Odisha and Gujarat in the previous month. However, no such case has been reported here so far. We are, nonetheless, vigilant. The Centre has instructed us to conduct genome sequencing of every case,” Dr Suresh told ANI.

Detailing the preparedness of the hospital in anticipation of a surge in cases, he said the hospital has got its own genome sequencing lab and a separate labour room for infected mothers as well. (ANI)

Read More: http://13.232.95.176

WHO Asks China To Share Real-Time Data On COVID Situation

By LokMarg 31st December 2022

World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus met with Chinese officials and again asked for specific and real-time data on the epidemiological situation in China, according to the statement released by the WHO website.

In the high-level meeting, WHO asked for more genetic sequencing data, data on disease impact including hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths — and data on vaccinations delivered and vaccination status, especially in vulnerable people and those over 60 years old.
WHO reiterated the importance of vaccination and boosters to protect against severe disease and death for people at higher risk.

China’s National Health Commission and the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration briefed WHO on China’s evolving strategy and actions in the areas of epidemiology, monitoring of variants, vaccination, clinical care, communication, and R&D.

During the meeting, WHO called on China to strengthen its clinical management and impact assessment, and expressed willingness to provide support in these areas, as well as on risk communications on vaccination to counter hesitancy. WHO also invited Chinese Scientists to engage more closely in COVID-19 expert networks including clinical management. WHO has invited Chinese scientists to present detailed data on viral sequencing at a meeting of the Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution on January 3, according to the statement.

“WHO stressed the importance of monitoring and the timely publication of data to help China and the global community to formulate accurate risk assessments and to inform effective responses,” the statement reads.

Earlier, on Thursday, Ghebreyesus held a press conference and said that the global body remains concerned over the evolving situation in China as COVID-19 infections witness a new spike in the country after curbs were eased.

Tedros said that the WHO will continue to offer its support for clinical care and protect the shattering healthcare system of China.

“We remain concerned about the evolving situation and continue encouraging #China to track the #COVID19 virus and vaccinate the highest risk people. We continue to offer our support for clinical care and protecting its health system,” Tedros wrote on Twitter.

Regarding the travel restrictions and guidelines issued by several countries for travellers from China, Tedros said that due to the unavailability of an apt amount of information from China about the outbreak, it is understandable that countries around the world are acting in such ways.

“In the absence of comprehensive information from #China, it is understandable that countries around the world are acting in ways that they believe may protect their populations. #COVID19,” Tedros tweeted. (ANI)

Read More: http://13.232.95.176

K’taka: Masks Compulsory In Restaurants, Pubs, Theatre, Schools

By LokMarg 26th December 2022

In the wake of a surge in Covid cases in several countries, wearing masks has been made compulsory inside restaurants, pubs, theatre halls, schools, and colleges in Karnataka.

Health Minister of Karnataka K. Sudhakar said to ANI, “There’s no need to panic. But we have to take precautions from now on.”
Ahead of New Year celebrations, there will be a huge crowd in pubs and restaurants. Therefore the Covid protocols have to be followed strictly, said the minister.

Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya will hold a virtual meeting with the Indian Medical Association (IMA) at 4 pm today on Covid-19 preparedness, situation, and awareness, IMA informed ANI.

Recently, IMA also issued an advisory and appealed to the public to follow Covid-appropriate behaviour with immediate effect.

“As per the available reports, nearly 5.37 lakh new cases have been reported in last 24 hours from major countries like USA, Japan, South Korea, France, and Brazil,” read the statement of IMA. (ANI)

Read More: http://13.232.95.176

Two Covid Positive Detected At Kolkata Airport

By LokMarg 26th December 2022

Two persons returning from abroad have tested positive for the Coronavirus infection at the Kolkata Aiport, airport sources said on Monday.

Both samples have been sent for genome sequencing.
According to sources, one of the positive passengers came from Dubai on Saturday while another came from Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur.

Patients are kept in quarantine in Beliaghata ID Hospital.

Following the advisory ‘Guidelines for International Arrivals’, issued by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the Ministry of Civil Aviation has commenced random post-arrival testing for International arrivals at Delhi Airport, said Dr. Gauri Agarwal, Founder of Genestrings Diagnostic Center on Sunday.

According to the new instructions by the government, 2 percent of all passengers arriving at international airports have to undertake random post-arrival testing at the Delhi Airport from December 24. This is being done to reduce the risk of ingress of the new COVID-19 variant BF.7 in India.

Earlier in the day, four international travellers from Myanmar tested positive for the Coronavirus infection at the Delhi airport.

It is pertinent to mention that Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya will hold a virtual meeting with the Indian Medical Association (IMA) at 4 pm today for the Covid-19 preparedness, situation.

Recently, the IMA also issued an advisory and appealed to the public to follow Covid-appropriate behaviour with immediate effect.

“In view of the sudden surge of COVID cases in different countries, the Indian Medical Association alerts and appeals to the public to follow COVID appropriate behaviour with immediate effect.”

“As per available reports, nearly 5.37 lakhs new cases have been reported in last 24 hours from major countries like USA, Japan, South as per the available reports, nearly 5.37 lakhs new cases have been reported in last 24 hours from major countries like USA, Japan, South Korea, France, and Brazil,” read the statement of IMA.

The entire country is gearing up for a possible fourth wave of Covid-19, with the new Omicron sub-variant BF.7, which is said to be the reason behind the surge in Covid cases in China, being detected in India. (ANI)

Read More: http://13.232.95.176

Omicron, The Crafty Virus

By Jasdev Singh Rai 3rd January 2022

It would appear as if there is a central committee of viruses that meet, learn from their experience and adapt with new strategies. That is of course a metaphoric statement. Viruses are not meant to have brains nor a sense of social community, let alone a strategy team. But what has happened and has happened in the past with dangerous viruses, is not far from this myth.

The Omicron variant of the SARS-Cov-2 Virus is far less potent than its predecessors but more infectious, spreading like wildfire once it takes hold in a population. According to three studies quoted in the British Medical Journal, the infection rate is faster but hospitalisations rate is about 15-80% less than its first predecessor and even the Delta variant. It also lasts shorter, between two and seven days. Some people have almost no symptoms but found to have the Omicron virus on testing.

The studies were done in England, Wales and South Africa. The number of people needing intensive care and oxygenation is even lower. Deaths are far fewer than the first Covid wave.

However that is no reason to let the virus rip through society. India is beginning to see an exponential increase in Omicron cases. That is the pattern with this virus. It starts with a few cases, but then within weeks, there is a steep curve of number of people infected.

The three studies so far have different populations. The South African study is based against a background that over 70% of South Africans have contracted Covid-19 last year and then subsequently the Delta variant. They have developed a natural immunity as the number of vaccinated people are less than countries like UK or India.

Cheryl Cohen, the South African doctor from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases who did the study even declared that their study suggests a positive story with reduced severity.

The England and Wales studies were against a background of over 80% people having been vaccinated twice. The percentage of people with the third, booster vaccine dose, was lower when the study was conducted. The study shows that people with booster dose are least likely to have any serious illness from Omicron. Those with two doses are at slightly higher risk. But most people needing hospitalisation have been those who were not vaccinated. Britain has escalated its booster dose programme and has even declared that it will reach its target before the end of the year. Vaccinators were working during the holidays too.

The studies have implications for India. The number of triple jabbed people is not high. India’s hospital infrastructure needs a lot of investment and is no where near that of developed western countries.

ALSO READ: More Covid Questions Than Answers

As Omicron starts to spread, the number of people relative to number of hospital beds and doctors is again going to be highly unfavourable. Even if a mere 0.5% people become seriously ill in India, that is over a 5 million patients. Where is the infrastructure to deal with that?

Consequently, India needs to take precautions urgently. Many European countries who have only just finished second vaccination, have gone into full or partial lockdowns. Some countries require quarantine for visitors. These measures have not started in India. There is a general belief among people that the virus is less virulent and therefore will require less stringent measures. There have been demonstrations against Government lockdowns as a result.

The Coronavirus story is typical. A new strain of virus can be extremely virulent as it is with the original SARS-Cov-19. However after a few mutations, it either becomes extinct or finds a form that causes minimal reaction within the human body but also enables the virus to do what it wants. The virus simply needs a host, replicate and die.

It is the reaction by the human body that causes health problems with Coronavirus. Macrophages (cells of defence and clean up) react, cells die and the toxins produced overwhelm the body’s ability to get rid of them. Consequently the SARS-Cov-19 virus now has found a mutation that can slip by through most human defences, cause less disruption and cell death and therefore less toxin production.

Eventually it might end up being treated as another cold. That is beneficial to both the virus and human beings. It seems surrealistic to paint a picture of nature engaged as a silent mediator between a virulent virus and a determined anti-virus human race and finds a settlement that appears to be in sight. The virus becomes less dangerous and humans start tolerating it. However this is in fact mythology or fiction.

When a new strain of virus comes into human race, sometimes it can cause havoc. This was the case with Bird flu, the Spanish Flu (of 1918), Ebola and Zika virus and now the Coronavirus.

Some viruses in history are thought to have become extinct. While others have become so benign that they don’t pose any problem.

What actually happens is that the genetic code is not static. As it replicates, it continues to develop mistakes, changes, mutations etc. Some times the mutation can be deadly for the host, such as humans or an animal. Sometimes the mutations can be self destructive and the virus goes into extinction. Sometimes mutations can become benign and cause fewer symptoms.

Benign viruses can also suddenly develop a mutation that becomes deadly. The Omicron Coronavirus may be less dangerous now but as its genetic code, the RNA in the case of Coronavirus, continues to develop faults, changes and mutations, a future mutation from the Omicron could be fatal.

It will be best if the Virus disappears altogether. However that is unlikely. Coronavirus has already had hundreds of mutations. Some have caught the headlines because they were virulent. Many have disappeared. Others may be lingering in benign form in animals or even humans without symptoms. Any of these could mutate into dangerous ones.

The spread of viruses depends on several factors but mainly transmissibility. Some, like HIV, can only be got through direct sexual contact or fluid exchange. Others like Covid seem to be airborne too and can jump easily from one person to another. Some viruses transmit when the host is fully infected while others jump when the host is still asymptomatic.

Consequently, it will be silly not to take Omicron Virus seriously. There have been quite few other small epidemics and pandemics in the last 20 years. It will be equally silly not to be vigilant for new variants. The vaccines give us hope. Equally Government need to put in place rapid reaction response strategies in case a dangerous mutation evolves. In the war between viruses and humans, indeed between viruses and all species, there are no winners. It is a perpetual war that will carry on as long as life exists on earth.

AFSPA No Longer Relevant In North-East

By Lehnga Singh 12th December 2021

A day after the Indian armed forces ambushed and killed 17 coal miners in Nagaland’s Mon district on December 4 in what was stated to be a case of mistaken identity during a counter-insurgency operation, a friend sent me this link to a song by a Manipuri band called Imphal Talkies and the Howlers. If you listen to the song, the words are:

“AFSPA, why don’t you go fuck yourself?
Don’t you have brothers?
Don’t you have commanders?
Don’t you have captains?
Why don’t you go fuck them all?
Why don’t you go Kill them all?
Tidim Road is still bloody
And the air smells of gunpowder
And from my windows I can see only widows
And mama don’t want me to sing such songs.
So please please leave
AFSPA, why don’t you go fuck yourself?”

The song dates back to 2016 but the sentiment expressed in it is still strongly alive and widespread through the north-eastern region of India: Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh and parts of Assam. AFSPA or the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act is hated almost universally in the region. But what exactly is AFSPA?

The origins of AFSPA (like hundreds of Indian laws) date back to the days of the British Raj. In 1942, in an attempt to quell the spread of the Quit India movement, the British colonial government that ruled India promulgated the Armed Forces Special Powers Ordinance. Later, in 1948, to stem the rioting and violence that erupted because of the Partition of India, four ordinances, modeled on the one from 1942, were promulgated to cover four regions, Assam, West Bengal, East Bengal, and the United Provinces. These areas were declared as disturbed and the armed forces were empowered specially to operate there.

After the mid-1950s when the Naga rebellion gathered momentum and a parallel Naga nation was declared, another law was passed. The Naga rebellion (or, as it is officially called, insurgency) was quelled but the act remains in force, validated by regular extensions. This is the AFSPA that (after several amendments) still exists in the area.

To put it in perspective, region-specific special powers were also granted to armed forces in Punjab and Chandigarh in 1983 to combat the rising separatist movement there but the act was repealed after 14 years in 1997. In 1990, a similar act was promulgated in the Jammu and Kashmir region after the spate of unrest and terrorism began growing in the region. AFSPA is still in force in J&K. As it is in the North-East.

In the North-East, almost universally, AFSPA is considered an excessively harsh and severe law that is prone to abuse by security and armed forces. It gives the armed forces the authority to use force or even open fire after warning a person found to be in contravention of the law. In the case of the unarmed Naga miners who were gunned down, interviews with survivors reveal otherwise. The Indian Express published interviews where survivors said they were not signaled to stop nor warned before the forces opened fire.

AFSPA in the North-East has faced criticism for a while. The latest incident brings the issue back into the spotlight. AFSPA has militarized parts of India close to the borders–both in the east or in the west. This has already had adverse effects on civil life, living conditions and the economy in many of these areas. In the North-East where insurgency has been on a steady decline, many believe it is non-aggressive interventions that hold the key to normalizing the tension.

India’s north-east has its own share of problems. Many north-easterners face discrimination in other parts of India; industries have not been investing in the region; and social and cultural differences are often not acknowledged or appreciated by the rest of India. The public mood and opinion the region have suffered another setback with the recent horrific killings, which even the local police authorities have described as being “murders”. It is time now to review the provisions of AFSPA, at least in the North-East

How dangerous is Omicron?

Ever since a new variant of COVID-19 surfaced in South Africa, giving yet another never-ending twist to the ongoing pandemic, questions have arisen about how bad this new mutated version, named Omicron, could be. To be sure, there are no clear answers. At least, not yet. But there are some indicators of what the variant can do.

First, Omicron may be more easily spreadable. If the surge of cases in South Africa is indicative of anything it shows that Omicron could be more easily spread. As on December 9, in South Africa, records showed that the virus increased 255% in just a week. Although deep research into a very recent variant such as Omicron has not been done yet, epidemiologists believe that it can infect people with low immunity levels more than earlier variants of COVID-19 do.

Second, it has already been noticed that vaccinated people or those who have already been infected before by COVID can contract the variant more easily than the earlier mutations of the virus.

Third, and there is a small nugget of hope here, is that the conditions that accompany infection by the virus may not be that severe. Although it may be too early to pass judgment about it, many patients infected by Omicron have shown milder symptoms than what happened with earlier variants.

While research continues into COVID and its several variants, the bottomline is that there is no substitute for abundant precautions against the spread of the virus: masks, social distancing, and vaccination. These may not offer 100% protection but till the elusive COVID-free world returns, these (often irritating) measures have to be prudently adopted.

‘We Haven’t Learnt Our Lessons From Covid Waves’

By LokMarg 7th August 2021

Yogendra Chaudhary, 30, a chemist shop owner in Moradabad (Uttar Pradesh), is scared of the looming third wave and urges people for Covid-appropriate behaviour in public places

I am a pharmacist and opened a medicine shop about the same time when the dread of Covid-19 was setting in. In a matter of a few months, the number of people visiting our pharmacy increased by nearly 50% which meant coming in contact with more and more strangers with every passing hour and day. Moreover, we had no idea about the immunity levels of these individuals that we were coming in contact with.

Needless to say, I caught the dreaded virus around April 2020, when everyone was just flailing around for solutions. Even though mine was a mild case and I escaped with only a mild fever, the uncertainty about when the infection might flare up, can leave people agonised. I resumed work after the required quarantine period and only after I ensured I had tested negative. One may recover from Covid, but the immunity isn’t as robust as before.

Back then, there was not even a murmur of vaccines being developed. Apart from the usual masks, gloves and sanitizers we had no protection at all. Even when all other services were halted amid strict lockdown, ours was the most essential service of it all, which meant we have been open throughout the pandemic. Day in and day out. There might have been days where hospitals and chemists must have been the only ones functioning. It’s an eerie feeling to be the only businesses open when everything else is shut down.

While people were scared when the first wave struck, the fear vanished as the cases began to subside. The Covid-appropriate behaviour went for a toss and quite a few of them would come to our pharmacy without masks. Then there were people who were following the protocols for the sake of it. If you ask me, what I feared the most was every time people would take out their phones (to make or receive calls) in between the purchases and after that directly take out cash to pay us. Phones are anyway considered dirty as few take the time to clean them properly.

Online transactions were cool though, but in small towns not everyone does online transactions. If you remember, Moradabad was declared a hotspot during the first wave, with so many people even refusing to get tested.

ALSO READ: ‘People Have Thrown Caution Out Of The Window’

Indeed, it did not take long for the second wave to knock in. And what a wave it turned out to be. No hospital beds, no oxygen, dead bodies flowing in the Ganga. But yet, we haven’t learnt our lessons. The tragedies are all but forgotten, and we are back to our Covid-inappropriate selves. Experts say the third wave is upon us, sooner or later. And being in the middle of it all being a chemist, I am scared. But if you look around, the public behaviour seems as if we care a hoot.

Prevention is definitely better than cure when it comes to the coronavirus. When people don’t take precautions, it is frontline workers like us chemists and our families who are at a major risk of infection and reinfection. I had never expected the pandemic to go on for so long and I wish I seen the end of it for good. The spectre of ill-health looming over people day in and day out is too much. The second wave was so heart-breaking as well as scary. The mutated virus was even more deadly, and to think it can be kept at bay (mostly) using the simple measures of masks, sanitisers and social distancing.

Vaccines have come as a much-needed relief but people still need to be careful. We should do everything in our might to keep the third wave at bay and we can’t fully be at rest until the virus is defeated altogether. After all our own lives and that of our loved ones are at stake.

As Told To Yog Maya Singh

Is India Prepared For 3rd Covid Wave?

By Amit Sengupta 13th July 2021

Indonesia now is in exactly the same terrible and tragic situation as India was during the peak of the second surge. Australia is going for a lockdown, and even New Zealand, hitherto totally safe, is on high alert. With cases rising in thousands every day, Boris Johnson might once again take the UK down the drain if he opens up the lockdown on July 19, even while all is not well in Catalonia/Barcelona in Spain, among other EU nations.

Vice President Kamala Harris led a ‘pride rally’ recently without a mask. Americans in many parts are allowed to come out in the open without masks. However, with 50 per cent fully vaccinated, is the virus really “on the run”, as President Joe Biden so proudly claimed on Independence Day, 4^th of July?

There is reportedly a ‘silent surge’ in many parts of America and it is worrisome. It is being largely attributed to clusters of unvaccinated people, including Trump-supporters ‘in denial’. A Georgetown University study reportedly found 30 clusters of counties, of which five are across the Southeast and Midwest, from Georgia to Texas, across Missouri, and parts of Oklahoma, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama and Arkansas, where the threat is real and looming large.

So how well is the Indian State with a new health minister at the helm prepared for the ‘third surge’, even as the second wave lingers on, and thousands care a damn in tourist spots, without masks or physical distancing?

Listen to the Covid Task Force head, Dr VK Paul, as reported by the Indian Express: “It is right that the graph (of the decline in the number of cases) has slowed down. It was earlier declining at a faster pace. It only shows that we cannot take the situation for granted. If it is around 35,000-37,000 cases per day, this is almost one-third the number of cases we saw during the first wave peak. The war is not over; the second wave is not over. It is perhaps more visible in some districts and two particular states and the Northeast, but it is still there. As long as this is still rising there, the nation is not safe…With a lot of effort and difficulty, we have reached a situation where cases are on the decline. The situation is bad only in a few districts. But all this can be snatched away from us because we have not contained the virus completely. If we give the virus an opportunity, and chains of transmission are launched…this is something we cannot afford…”

Indians banged thalis, frying pans, pressure cookers at 5 pm on March 22, 2021, following the call of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, even when the virus was just about spreading its wings. Indians followed dutifully with no questions asked, the sudden, draconian and unplanned lockdown last March, which led to the exodus of lakhs of migrant workers. Indians even believed the PM when he said that all will be well in 21 days.

ALSO READ: Virus Is There, Fear Is Gone

Meanwhile, the states fought their own battles without any tangible help from the Center. Millions were rendered jobless, the poor were left to their helpless fate, the economy tanked and continues to tank, hunger, starvation, anxiety and depression stalked the unhappy landscape, there was ‘no vaccine policy’ worth its name, and people hoped against hope that 2021 will start with a flicker of hope. Remember the PM’s cathartic speech at the World Economic Forum’s Davos Dialogue in January 2021?

“Today, Covid cases are declining rapidly in India… India’s stats cannot be compared with one country as 18 per cent of the world’s population lives here and yet we not only solved our problems but also helped the world fight the pandemic… In these tough times, India has been undertaking its global responsibility from the beginning. When airspace was closed in many countries, India took more than 1 lakh citizens to their countries and delivered essential medicines to more than 150 countries…”

Significantly, the PM said India’s role will increase with the rollout of more ‘Made in India’ Covid-19 vaccines. Clearly, this was chest-thumping in its most glorious form at the world stage.

Then arrived the deadly second surge, even as the PM and his Union home minster were obsessed with capturing Bengal at any cost, while welcoming millions at the super-spreader Kumbh. The PM was delighted to see huge crowds in one of his last rallies in Bengal. While sections of the stooge media played along, the international media published front page pictures of mass cremations, accompanied with highly critical text putting the entire blame on Modi. And they were on the spot, on the dot. Surely, the mass tragedy was a public spectacle for the world to see!

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Lest we forget, there were tens of thousands dying due to the acute scarcity of hospital beds, oxygen, life-saving drugs, with cremation and burial grounds unable to find space for the dead bodies, while parking lots, pavements, open spaces and public parks in some places were converted into cremation grounds. Some electric crematoriums refused to work because their ‘internal organs’ had melted due to the relentless heat, huge make-shift walls were created to block journalists to report on the relentless mass cremations (in Lucknow), and the data of deaths were allegedly fudged or censored, even while the obituary pages were full of tributes to the dead (as in Gujarat).

So, is India prepared for the third wave?

On June 19, said Dr Randeep Guleria, Director, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Delhi: “We don’t seem to have learnt from what happened between the first and the second wave. Again crowds are building up… people are gathering. It will take some time for the number of cases to start rising at the national level. But it could happen within the next six to eight weeks… maybe a little longer.” He said that unless the population is vaccinated, the country will remain vulnerable in the coming months.

The Hindu reported in early May that that the principal scientific adviser to the government of India has warned that the third wave of Covid-19 is inevitable. “There is, however, no clear time-line on when this third phase will occur. We should be prepared for new waves, and Covid-appropriate behaviour and vaccine upgrades is the way forward,” he said.

Modi has made the promise on live television of total and free vaccination in India after June 21. Hoardings have come up with the PM’s mug shot profusely thanking him for free vaccines. If Rahul Gandhi as much as tweets: ‘July has come. Where are the vaccines?’ some central ministers suddenly emerge from the shadows and Rahul gets a good tongue-lashing.

The situation is as fuzzy as it gets. Noida apparently stopped vaccination from June 30 for a week – reasons not known. Gujarat suspended vaccination recently for unknown reasons – there were no vaccines, according to sources, it was reported. Vaccination was stopped in Mumbai due to lack of vaccines, but restarted again. Almost all the big states reportedly have vaccination shortfalls; Bihar has a shortfall of 71 per cent, while West Bengal, Jharkhand and UP are not far away. Even Kerala and Delhi, who have done the best, will not be able to achieve a 60 per cent target by December.

Is the current scenario optimistic? Not really.

Apparently, about 20 per cent plus have got their first dose, and 5 per cent plus have been fully vaccinated. Surely, at this rate, no one knows when a country of India’s size will ever get ‘fully vaccinated’. And the bitter truth is that less the level of vaccination in the population, the more there are fears of multiple mutations of this killer virus. India, therefore, is as vulnerable as ever.